Provisional count suggests Renamo win likely in Marromeu – Hanlon

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Provisional count suggests Renamo win likely in Marromeu – Hanlon

9:35 CAT | 20 Nov 2018

File photo: CIP Eleições

Provisional and parallel counts show that Renamo should be on course for victory in Marromeu Thursday and that Frelimo will have huge problems to make up its deficit. Only 8 polling stations will be voting on Thursday, with 5804 voters. A further 4 polling stations with 2974 voters are missing from the provisional count.

STAE’s own provisional count included 27 of the 39 polling stations and gave Renamo 58% of the vote, 6820 to 3999 for Frelimo. Renamo failed to win more than 50% in only 3 of the 27 polling stations.

Thus from 12 polling stations with 8778 votes, if turnout is 70% as it was in some polling stations in Marromeu, that would mean 6144 people voting. Frelimo would need a majority of 2821 to win. That would require 73% of the valid vote in those 12 polling stations, something Frelimo did not obtain in any polling station in Marromeu on 10 October.

Both sides will be mobilising the supporters to vote. Could Frelimo get a 70% turnout and 73% of the vote?

Two of the polling stations being rerun at in EPC Samora Machel, where there was a full parallel count before the ballots were taken by the police, and Renamo won 63%. In EPC 25 de Junho – Sede six polling stations are being re-run, but two are not – in those Renamo won 71%. Finally in the STAE provisional count, four polling stations are missing from EPC Julius Nyerere, but in the other six Renamo had a comfortable majority of nearly 60% and the results in the 4 missing polling stations should have been similar.

A full table of the provisional and parallel count for 10 October is attached and is available on bit.ly/MarrProv

By Joseph Hanlon

Source: 2018 Local Elections - Mozambique Political Process Bulletin