Above normal rainfall forecast for southern Mozambique

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Above normal rainfall forecast for southern Mozambique

7:38 CAT | 10 Oct 2016

Folha de Maputo (File photo9

Mozambique’s National Meteorology Institute (INAM) is forecasting above normal rainfall in central and southern Mozambique during the 2016-2017 rainy season.

Although the term “above normal” carries a risk of flooding, this forecast will come as a great relief for farmers in the southern and central provinces, who were hit by severe drought this year. The rainy season begins in October and ends in March. The wettest months of the year are normally January and February

INAM meteorologist Acacio Tembe announced the long term forecast at a Maputo press conference on Friday, immediately after a meeting between INAM and the Mozambican relief agency, the National Disaster Management Institute (INGC).

Tembe also said that the forecast for the coming months was for below normal rainfall in the northern provinces of Nampula, Niassa and Cabo Delgado.

“We make probabilistic forecasts for three months”, he said, “but what constitutes normal rainfall depends on the region. Each region has its own rainfall behaviour”.

Thus average rainfall in the south and centre of the country is about 400 millimetres in the first three months of the rainy season, but in the north the average is between 900 and 1,200 millimetres for the same period.

Giving a more detailed forecast, Tembe said that the northern part of Maputo province and the southern part of Gaza, will have lower than normal rainfall – but normal rainfall with a trend to above normal is forecast for everywhere else in the south and centre of the country.

In the north, the forecast is for above normal rains in the southern parts of Nampula and Niassa. But for northern Niassa, coastal Nampula and all of Cabo Delgado the forecast is for normal to above normal rainfall.

INGC representative Rita Almeida said that these figures will now go before the Council of Ministers (Cabinet) at its meeting next Tuesday.

The contingency plan for the rainy season is under preparation, she added, and the INGC is training staff to move into action in the event of any disaster.

Almeida said the river basins most at risk of flooding are the Umbeluzi and Incomati in Maputo province, the Buzi in Sofala and the Licungo and Lugela in Zambezia.

Source: AIM