Mozambique: Success of Rwandan troops in Cabo Delgado may weaken Nyusi’s position – consultants

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Mozambique: Success of Rwandan troops in Cabo Delgado may weaken Nyusi’s position – consultants

7:57 CAT | 24 Sep 2021

The consultancy Eurasia said on Friday that the success of Rwanda’s troops in fighting the insurgency in northern Mozambique opens space for criticism of Frelimo leaders and diminishes confidence in Nyusi’s ability to lead the armed forces.

“The successes of Rwanda’s armed forces in fighting the insurgency raises questions about leadership in Mozambique,” the analysts write in a commentary on developments in the north of the country.

In the document, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, the Eurasia analysts wrote that “the speed with which the Rwandan forces defeated the insurgents in Cabo Delgado led elites within the ruling Frelimo party to question the ability of president Filipe Nyusi to lead the Mozambican army.

Prior to the involvement of Rwandan troops in fighting the insurgents who have been spreading violence in the province for over three years, “Mozambican troops struggled to mitigate the insurgency and were accused of committing various abuses.”

In the opinion of these analysts, “although Nyusi is unlikely to be sacked, the decline in confidence in his leadership may affect the succession debate within Frelimo”.

The President, they conclude, “hopes to choose his successor to avoid accusations due to his likely involvement in the trial over the hidden debts,” the analysts conclude.

The comment comes on the same day that the President of Rwanda visits the north of the country. Paul Kagamé will participate, as a guest of honour, in the celebrations of 25 September, the Day of the Armed Forces for the Defence of Mozambique.

Mocímboa da Praia was occupied by insurgents for a year, until early August, until it was recaptured by Mozambican and Rwandan forces – who together with troops from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) are turning the tide of the conflict in favour of the state forces.

The Mozambican government on Tuesday in a cabinet meeting approved the plan for the reconstruction of Cabo Delgado for the period 2021-24, details of which were referred to ceremonies to be held soon.

The province is rich in natural gas but has been terrorised since 2017 by armed rebels, with some attacks claimed by the extremist group Islamic State.

The conflict has led to more than 3,100 deaths, according to the ACLED conflict registration project, and more than 817,000 displaced people, according to Mozambican authorities.

Source: Lusa