Mozambique: Oxford Economics raises Mozambique 2023 growth forecast to 5.1%

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Mozambique: Oxford Economics raises Mozambique 2023 growth forecast to 5.1%

1:31 CAT | 27 Nov 2023

FILE - Analysts believe that the Coral South FLNG project could significantly increase gas production in Mozambique as early as this year. [File photo: Eni]

Consultancy Oxford Economics Africa this Sunday revised the growth forecast for Mozambique this year from 4.4% to 5.1%, on the basis of “surprising data” relating to the evolution of the economy in the third quarter.

“Mozambique’s economic growth in the third quarter was greater than expected, essentially due to the continued increase in liquefied natural gas production on the Rovuma basin’s offshore platform and the recovery of agricultural production, meaning this growth above expectations leads us to improve the growth forecast to 5.1%,” says the African department of Oxford Economics.

In the African department’s comment on the third quarter’s growth figures, which show an expansion of 6.0% compared to the same period in 2022 and 2.9% compared to the previous quarter, analysts consider that the Coral South FLNG project could significantly increase gas production in Mozambique this year.

“According to our calculations, this project could increase total natural gas production by 65% this year, but in addition to developments in the gas sector, infrastructure investments related to the expansion of the energy network and the reconstruction of damaged infrastructure in Cabo Delgado will also sustain economic growth in the medium term,” reads the comment sent to investors, and to which Lusa had access.

The TotalEnergies project in Cabo Delgado, the largest in the country, “is only expected to restart in the first quarter of 2024, due to ongoing negotiations with contractors and adjacent communities regarding the works”, writes Oxford Economics Africa.

Mozambique’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.92% in the third quarter, growing 4.9% since the beginning of the year, the National Statistics Institute (INE) announced on 17 November.

According to the Quarterly National Accounts report, real Mozambican GDP, at market prices, was influenced in the third quarter by the primary sector, which grew 12.9%, “with greater emphasis on the mining industry branch, with a variation of 43.18%”.

This was followed by agriculture, livestock, hunting, forestry and forestry, which grew 3.53% in the same period.

The 5.92% growth in the third quarter also compares to 4.67% in the second quarter and 4.17% in the first quarter. In the third quarter of 2022, Mozambican real GDP grew by 3.65%.

Source: Lusa