Mozambique: Oil companies unlikely to return until next year – consultants

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Mozambique: Oil companies unlikely to return until next year – consultants

3:51 CAT | 23 May 2022

File photo: Lusa

The consultancy Eurasia said on Monday that international energy companies are unlikely to restart work in northern Mozambique in the next 12 months due to persistent insecurity and terrorist reorganisation.

“The potential for Islamic State to provide funding and resources to the insurgents and the possible arrival of reinforcements from Tanzania will likely strengthen the insurgency, making the resumption of the liquefied natural gas exploration project in the next 12 months unlikely,” it said in a commentary on critical developments in several African economies.

In the commentary sent to investors and Lusa had access, Eurasia said that “the insurgency is likely to persist, following the reorganisation of the terrorist group operating in Mozambique.”

On 10 May, the terrorists attacked Macomia district, and the Islamic State designated Mozambique as one of its provinces (Wilaya Mozambique), the analysts say, concluding that “the announcement demonstrates the reorganisation of the terrorist group’s operations in Africa and a broadening of its operations in the country.”

The Eurasia analysis contradicts the opinion of the commander-general of the Mozambique Republic Police (PRM), Bernardino Rafael. They said a week ago that “the war against terrorism is almost over.

Bernardino Rafael gave an update on the fight against armed groups terrorising districts of Cabo Delgado province on 13 May when he was speaking to a military contingent from Rwanda in the Administrative Post of Chai, Macomia district.

“We are not saying we have reached the end, but it is almost over,” Rafael said, stressing that 70% of the planned military operations against the armed groups in Cabo Delgado province have already been executed.

Cabo Delgado province is rich in natural gas but has been terrorised since 2017 by armed rebels, with some attacks claimed by the extremist group Islamic State.

French oil company TotalEnergies pulled out of the region last year and will only return when security conditions are met, something the company itself estimates could happen later this year.

There are 784,000 internally displaced people due to the conflict, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), and around 4,000 deaths, according to the ACLED conflict registration project.

Since July 2021, an offensive by government troops, with support from Rwanda and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), has allowed areas where there was a rebel presence to recover.

Source: Lusa