Mozambique: “No ventilator will save us from this pandemic, we will have to bank on prevention” – Dr Samo Gudo

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Mozambique: “No ventilator will save us from this pandemic, we will have to bank on prevention” – Dr Samo Gudo

1:32 CAT | 08 Apr 2020

Photo: A Verdade

The Deputy Director-General of the National Institute of Health (INS) is downplaying the fact that Mozambique has only 34 ventilators for 30 million inhabitants. “We have to take the opportunity to invest in prevention, because no ventilator will save us from this pandemic,” Dr Samo Gudo Junior said this Monday (6th), contesting the projection issued by Imperial College in London, which indicated that, even if Mozambique moved to a “lockdown”, 9,000 deaths were likely.

Since April 1, Mozambique has not registered any new coronavirus cases, and still has just 10 infected, of which one has recovered. The other nine are in isolation at home.

Although no patient has yet been hospitalised, the deputy director-general of the institution which conducts the National Health System tests was faced with the existence of only 34 ventilators in the country, a instrument vital for the recovery of critically ill Covid-19 patients. Respiratory failure is the main cause of death from Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.

Dr Samo Gudo Júnior further downplayed the precariousness of a health system with only one health unit per 10,000 people. “We have to take the opportunity to bank on prevention, because no ventilator will save us from this pandemic. Even countries that decided to invest in ventilators without prevention today do not have enough to meet demand, so it is necessary to anticipate in order not to have to need them.”

“We don’t even want to use ventilators. We will invest in prevention and ensure that we all comply with the measures announced by the Executive. If we do that, eventually we will not need ventilators,” he stressed.

A British academic institution has suggested that, if the government of Filipe Nyusi only declared a state of emergency, 37% of the population could be infected with the Covid-19 and 30,000 could die. The Imperial College in London also indicated that, in a “lockdown” situation, at least 11% of the population would be infected, and Mozambique would register 9,000 deaths.

Dr. Eduardo Samo Gudo Júnior downplays Imperial College projection

“The projection published by the group at Imperial College London is important, but there are some aspects that we have to interpret with some caution. The projection is based on a mathematical model with several options; there are assumptions that have to be considered that in Mozambique could cause the numbers to be higher or lower,” the deputy director general of the INS explained.

“For example, the Mozambican population is mostly young, compared to the population in the West, and 65% of the population is rural, where there is less mobility. These are assumptions that have to be considered. And there are measures that are already being implemented that will impact the assumptions of the projection.”

“The estimates of ten days ago, before the declaration of the Stage 3 state of emergency, no longer employ the same assumptions as today,” the Mozambican academic, who holds a PhD in Human Retrovirus Immunology, concluded.

First preliminary report on Covid-19 in Cabo Delgado Province “in principle on Thursday”

Regarding the investigation into how the 10th Covid-19 patient was infected in Mozambique, the INS deputy director-general explained that samples from 30 contacts identified in the Afungi Peninsula, Cabo Delgado province, had only arrived in Maputo early on Monday (06) afternoon. “I received information a few minutes ago that the flight from Pemba, with about 30 samples, has just landed. These samples will be tested today on the night shift, so, in principle, we will share the results tomorrow.”

Coronavirus-samo1gudo0704 — *Photo: A Verdade*

“This is a complex investigation. Any epidemiological investigation has a complex and exhaustive methodology to ensure that the conclusion drawn is final. It cannot be made lightly,” Dr Júnior said. It was necessary to “link the results of the samples with the results of the questionnaires that were made, to understand the dynamics of the contacts and relate them to the results. At the moment the investigation is ongoing, and we hope to have the first preliminary report on Thursday”.

This Tuesday (07), despite asserting that “we received 33 samples (on Monday night, 06), and started the testing process. We still haven’t had 24 hours, so we will have the results within 2 to 3 hours ( …) The team in Cabo Delgados is in the process of finishing collecting samples from additional individuals and will return to Maputo tomorrow (Wednesday, 08) with the second batch of samples, which will also be tested”, the source of the 10th Covid-19 patient had still not yet been identified, but no one in Cabo Delgado province has yet been diagnosed as infected with the new coronavirus.

@Verdade has learned that, of the 57 tests carried out between Monday and Tuesday – the largest number ever carried out in a single day in Mozambique – 47 were tests on Mozambican children, in an evident widening of the testing base. Authorities however say that cases of respiratory disease in Mozambican health units have not increased significantly.

By Adérito Caldeira

Source: A Verdade