Mozambique: NGO estimates 10-day election result stoppages cost 2% of 2024 GDP

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Mozambique: NGO estimates 10-day election result stoppages cost 2% of 2024 GDP

5:39 CAT | 11 Nov 2024

FILE - Maputo, November 8 2024. [File photo: Luisa Nhantumbo / Lusa]

The Centre for Public Integrity (CIP), a non-governmental organisation, estimates that Mozambique lost 24.5 billion meticais (€360 million) in ten days of stoppages to contest the 9 October election results.

“The total estimated loss to the economy in ten days of demonstrations is 24.5 billion meticais, which represents 2% of the total GDP [Gross Domestic Product] estimated for 2024,” reads a CIP article on the “Economic impact of electoral fraud in Mozambique,” sent to the media on Monday [ To read the full paper, in Portuguese, click HERE.].

At issue is a series of stoppages of activities and demonstrations called by presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane, who does not recognise the results of the general elections that gave victory to Daniel Chapo and the Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo, the ruling party).

The demonstrations, which were mostly violent, left a trail of destruction in the capital Maputo, with reports of deaths, injuries, arrests, destroyed infrastructure and looted shops, especially on 7 November.

According to CIP, the trade and repair services, transport, storage, information and communications, hotels and restaurants, financial services and product taxes sectors were the most affected by the demonstrations, with total losses of around 14.9 billion meticais ( €219 million), or 61% of the losses estimated in the study.

For the CIP, adding the 24.5 billion meticais in losses to the cost of this year’s ballot, 19 billion meticais (€279 million), this electoral cycle could represent a cumulative impact of “more than 3% of GDP”, making it the “most expensive election in Mozambique’s history”.

Despite exceeding the institutions’ figure, the CIP article is based on data provided by the Confederation of Economic Associations of Mozambique (CTA) and the country’s Tax Authority, which recommends transparency in analysing the economic impacts of the shutdowns.

“It is recommended that the government and the CTA adopt a more grounded and transparent approach to analysing and disseminating economic data,” reads the article, which mentions the relevance of the estimates for formulating public policies and planning for companies and investors.

The Centre for Public Integrity also suggests that the Administrative Court (TA) conduct an independent audit of the estimates of economic and fiscal losses in order to have data that “accurately reflects the country’s economic and fiscal reality”.

“In times of crisis it becomes essential not only to report losses, but to communicate in a balanced and well-founded way in order to maintain public and investor confidence,” concludes CIP, considering that the allegations of electoral fraud and political instability could significantly affect the Mozambican economy.

Following street protests that brought the country to a standstill on 21, 24 and 25 October, Mondlane once again called on the public for a seven-day general strike from 31 October, with national protests and a mass demonstration in Maputo on Thursday 7 November, which caused chaos in the capital, with several barricades, burning tyres and police firing shots and tear gas throughout the day.

Venâncio Mondlane announced on Thursday that the protests would continue until the electoral truth was restored.

At least three people were killed and 66 injured during clashes between demonstrators and the police on Thursday, the eighth day of the strikes called by Venâncio Mondlane, announced the Maputo Central Hospital (HCM), the country’s largest health centre.

Source: Lusa