Mozambique: GDP growth to accelerate to 4.4% in 2022, from 2.8% in 2021 – Fitch

Login

Register

http://www.clubofmozambique.com/

Mozambique: GDP growth to accelerate to 4.4% in 2022, from 2.8% in 2021 – Fitch

10:27 CAT | 23 Aug 2021

File photo: Lusa

Mozambique’s economic growth should accelerate to 4.4% next year, after growth of 2.8% this, marking its recovery from last year’s 1.3% shrinkage in gross domestic product, according to an analysis released on Monday by Fitch Solutions, a financial consultancy.

“While we forecast that real GDP will expand by 2.8 percent in 2021, growth will be below the 2010-19 average of 5.5 percent, and below the Sub-Saharan African average of 3.1 percent,” reads the note sent to clients, which Lusa has seen, from the consultancy, which is part of the same group as credit rating agency Fitch Ratings.

GDP growth is set to accelerate to 4.4 percent next year, sustained by strengthening domestic demand and increased exports of natural gas, it said.

However, progress on vaccination against Covid-19 “will remain slow” in the country were fewer than 3% of the population has been vaccinated. The note states that, despite the fact that the current lockdown measures are due to expire on 30 August, some restrictions are expected to remain in place at least until the end of the year, weighing on private activity and consumers.

According to Fitch Solutions, Mozambique is unlikely to meet its official goal of vaccinating half of its 32 million inhabitants by the end of next year, although progress in immunisation will reduce the risk of further lockdowns due to the pandemic.

The risks regarding these forecasts are negative, the analysts stress: the outlook is more likely to get worse than better.

In the natural gas industry, ENI’s floating offshore platform is on track to secure its first gas in 2022, the note states, forecasting a 27.1% increase in Mozambique’s gas production in 2022, boosting exports and government revenues and so giving more scope for public spending.

Mozambique has recorded 1,800 deaths associated with Covid-19 and a cumulative 142,784 confirmed cases of infection.

Worldwide, Covid-19 has claimed at least 4,423,173 deaths worldwide, out of over 211.3 million infections by the new coronavirus recorded since the start of the pandemic, according to the latest figures from Agence France-Presse.

The respiratory disease is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, detected in late 2019 in Wuhan, a city in central China, and currently with variants identified in the UK, India, South Africa, Brazil or Peru.

Source: Lusa