Mozambique: ExxonMobil LNG delay pushes back production start to 2031 – analysts

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Mozambique: ExxonMobil LNG delay pushes back production start to 2031 – analysts

1:58 CAT | 23 Oct 2025

File photo: Integrity

Consultancy firm Oxford Economics said on Wednesday that oil company ExxonMobil is only likely to make a final investment decision (FID) on gas in Mozambique once the Cabo Delgado region has stabilised, delaying the start of production to 2031.

“The risks of further delays have increased again due to the resurgence of terrorist attacks and, in our opinion, a final investment decision (FID) on ExxonMobil’s Rovuma LNG project will not be concluded before the lifting of ‘force majeure’ on Mozambique’s gas projects. Consequently, first production from Rovuma LNG is not likely before 2031,” wrote analysts from the Africa department of the British consultancy.

The analysis of Mozambique’s gas sector, sent to clients and accessed by Lusa, follows TotalEnergies’ FID announcement on the new Coral Norte floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) platform, which joins the already approved Coral Sul project. Construction on both had been suspended following attacks attributed to terrorists in Cabo Delgado province, which prompted the company to declare “force majeure”.

“We continue to assume that security around Palma can be guaranteed and that TotalEnergies and the government will agree on an updated development plan and budget for the Mozambique LNG project to resume in the first half of 2026, with production starting in the second half of 2030,” the analysts wrote.

Mozambique has three approved mega-development projects for the exploration of LNG reserves in the Rovuma Basin, ranked among the largest in the world, off the coast of Cabo Delgado. These include TotalEnergies’ project (13 mtpa), which is preparing to resume after suspension due to attacks in the region, and ExxonMobil’s 18 mtpa project, which is awaiting a final investment decision. Both are based on the Afungi peninsula.

So far, only Eni’s Coral Sul has moved forward, and in early October Coral Norte, located offshore the province, was also secured. The remaining projects are being developed onshore.

A study by consultancy Deloitte concluded that in 2024, Mozambique’s LNG reserves represented potential revenues of US$100 billion.

The partners in Area 4 of the Rovuma Basin — Eni, Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos (ENH), CNPC, Kogas and XRG — signed at the beginning of the month the FID for the new US$7.2 billion project, a replica of Coral Sul, also operated by Eni. The project will double Mozambique’s LNG production to seven million tonnes per annum (mtpa) from 2028.

Since October 2017, the province has faced attacks claimed by movements associated with the extremist group Islamic State, which have caused more than one million displaced persons and 349 deaths in 2024 alone, according to data from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, a US government institution that analyses conflicts in Africa.

Source: Lusa