Mozambique elections: Did STAE use INE error to manipulate Gaza? – By Joseph Hanlon

Login

Register

http://www.clubofmozambique.com/

Mozambique elections: Did STAE use INE error to manipulate Gaza? – By Joseph Hanlon

8:32 CAT | 17 Jun 2019

File: Training previous to voter registration in Gaza province. [File photo: CNE & STAE]

An obscure statistical error may have been used to inflate the number of potential voters in Gaza, according to Prof Antonio Francisco of IESE (Instituto de Estudos Sociais e Economicos). He was the first to publicly point out that elections officials disagree with the 2017 population census about the adult population of Gaza. What he calls “statistical juggling” appears to have been used to inflate the voters role to allow even more ballot box stuffing in Gaza.

The 2017 census says that Gaza will have a population of in 2019 of 1,503,233 of whom 737,278 are of voting age. STAE estimates that there are 1,144,337 voting age adults in Gaza, and that in 2018 and 2019 there were registered 1,162,883 voters – 165% of the voting age adults estimated by the 2017 census and 102% of adults estimated by STAE.

Francisco notes that the 2007 census gave a national population of 21,618,631 and Gaza population of 1,236,284. These numbers have been used everywhere, including in population projections posted on the web.

But Francisco discovered that in a single publication by the Instituto Nacional de Estatistica (INE) in 2011 the 2007 population of Gaza was increased to 2,236,481 – an increase of 1 million. Probably just a typing error in setting out the table which no one noticed. But Francisco asks if this totally incorrect number was used to predict the number of voting age adults in 2019.

Prof Francisco’s article is HERE

By Joseph Hanlon

ALSO READ: Mozambique elections: How will CNE sort out provincial mess left by AR? – Hanlon

Morrumbala election commission members register twice – Hanlon

Mozambique: Registration manipulation gives Nyusi 307,000 votes – Hanlon

Mozambique: Registration hits 90%, but who took Gaza’s children? – By Joseph Hanlon

Source: 2019 General Elections - Mozambique Political Process Bulletin