Mozambique crisis: Insurgency plans new attack, says consultancy firm

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Mozambique crisis: Insurgency plans new attack, says consultancy firm

7:05 CAT | 13 Apr 2021

Image: Africa News

The consultancy Pangea-Risk considers that insurgents in northern Mozambique are preparing an attack on Pemba and will, in the coming weeks, wrestle back control of Palma, which it considers “vulnerable to new attacks”.

“There will be a security vacuum in Cabo Delgado next month, if not the next, which leaves both Palma and other locations in the province exposed to more attacks by militants,” wrote the consultant this Sunday (11.04) in a note on the violence in northern Mozambique.

“Our local sources expect an attack on Quitunda, near the Afungi project site, in the coming weeks. Such an attack would put pressure on the Afungi garrison to leave the security zone around the construction site of the liquefied natural gas project and mobilise to protect the displaced and vulnerable communities in Quitunda, perhaps violating the security agreement between the Government and the oil company Total,” the analysts write.

In the note sent to customers, which the Lusa news agency had access to, these analysts say that “more attacks on Palma are to be expected in the coming weeks, as insurgents seek to regain control of the territory and extend their control north of Mocímboa da Praia “.

The consultants recall that, in October and March, together with other risk consultants, they had warned of the likelihood of an attack on Palma but were ignored.

“Pangea-Risk wrote two detailed warnings before the ‘Battle of Palma’ in northern Mozambique, one in October and the other 12 days before the attack, but the warnings, on the eve of one of the worst acts of Islamic militancy in southern Africa, were ignored,” the note reads.

It goes on to warn that “the security vacuum in the region leaves the provincial capital, Pemba, and Tanzanian coastal city of Mtwara exposed to further attacks by militants in the coming months.

For these consultants, the March 24 attack on Palma did not have to do with the resumption of Total’s activities. “It was the result of months of preparation, during which there were ample warnings about the impending attacks.”

“The battle in and around Palma lasted twelve days and counterinsurgency operations are still taking place at the time of writing. it is estimated that more than 100 civilians have died and 35,000 others have been displaced from their homes,” the consultants’ report recalls.

It also presents the history of the attacks from 2017 to a turning point reached in August, 2020.

“In August 2020, militants captured the city of Mocímboa da Praia, and still control it. From a strategic perspective, control of Mocímboa da Praia gave insurgents a base to launch attacks on other cities.” On March 7, they captured Nonje, a border post with Tanzania, “effectively isolating Palma to the north and south, and to the east and west, making the boat to Pemba the only possible [escape] route”.

Signs identified by analysts

In the middle of last month, they recall, the city [Palma] “faced hunger and saw daily attacks on defence posts, with infiltrations by militants and sabotage of military forces’ provisions”.

At this point, they conclude, “various security analysts inside and outside Mozambique had already issued warnings of an imminent attack on the isolated and encircled city of Palma, although there is no indication that evacuations were launched by the government, foreign embassies and companies operating in the region”.

Mozambican authorities have taken back control of the village of Palma, attacked on March 24 by rebel groups, causing dozens of deaths and injuries, in a confrontation that is still ongoing.

Armed groups have terrorised Cabo Delgado since 2017, with some attacks claimed by the Islamic State group, in a wave of violence that has already caused more than 2,500 deaths and displaced 700,000 people.

The attack on Palma led oil company Total to indefinitely abandon the site of the gas project under construction on the Afungi peninsula, with production, on which many of Mozambique’s economic growth expectations for the next decade are based, scheduled to begin in 2024.