Mozambique: ACLED estimates 8-year Cabo Delgado death toll at 6,257

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Mozambique: ACLED estimates 8-year Cabo Delgado death toll at 6,257

10:58 CAT | 06 Oct 2025

File photo: Lusa

The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) reports 6,257 deaths after eight years of terrorist attacks in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, warning of the current instability, with the resurgence of violence.

“The situation is quite unstable. In September, the Islamic State of Mozambique (ISM) was active in eleven districts of Cabo Delgado and also crossed into Nampula at the end of the month,” Peter Bofin, a researcher at ACLED, told Lusa.

Gas-rich Cabo Delgado province, northern Mozambique, has been the target of terrorist attacks for eight years, with the first attack recorded on 5 October 2017, in the district of Mocímboa da Praia.

According to Peter Bofin, a senior researcher at this organisation that collects and analyses data on violent conflicts and protests worldwide, since October 2017, at least “2,209 violent events” have been recorded in Cabo Delgado, with “6,257 reported deaths,” including at least 2,631 civilians.

“Unlike in 2021, when it attacked Palma, the group now operates in small, highly mobile cells. This allows them to operate across much of the province, a pattern that strains security forces’ resources, even though there are likely fewer than 400 ISM fighters,” the researcher said.

“ISM activity increased significantly in August and September compared to previous months. There may be a connection between this and the imminent resumption of the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project in Palma,” he added.

That district was the first stage of attacks on 5 October 2017 by armed groups carrying out incursions into Cabo Delgado. The main town of Mocímboa da Praia even served as rebel headquarters for a little over a year, until it was retaken in August 2021 by joint action by Mozambican and Rwandan government forces.

For Peter Bofin, between 2017 and March 2021, “the insurgency strengthened, taking Mocímboa da Praia and attacking Palma,” but the Defence and Security Forces began to gain ground against a terrorist group that is now “much smaller, around 2,000 fighters at the time, now less than 400, and is no longer in a position to take cities as before.”

“However, the group is extremely resilient. It has remained united and adapted tactically to operate in small groups. In this way, it has managed to create considerable disruption. For example, two raids in Mocímboa da Praia this month led many to abandon the city and created considerable tensions,” said the researcher.

Given the occurrence of new attacks, especially since last July, the researcher predicts the insurgency will continue in the near future: “The group is resilient, with access to adequate funds and weapons to sustain itself. Unless it directly threatens the LNG plant, it is unlikely that the better-equipped and previously effective Rwandan forces will become more active against it.”

United Nations agencies reported that nearly 22,000 people fled three districts of Cabo Delgado, including Mocímboa da Praia, from 19 to 26 September, due to the resurgence of attacks, which in eight years have already displaced more than a million people, according to official estimates.

The researcher praised the performance of the Mozambican forces in combating the insurgency, especially since 2021, after which he considered the “stabilisation of its structure,” calling for government efforts to build the army’s capacity to better deal with the insurgency.

“President Chapo identified significant deficiencies in the Armed Forces, including corruption, the disclosure of sensitive data to the enemy, and favouritism in appointments. There is also an alarming tendency by the Mozambique Armed Defence Forces (FADM) to target civilians, particularly in coastal areas, where they believe the population may support the insurgents,” he said.

“Only when these systemic issues are addressed will the FADM be able to defend communities in northern Mozambique,” concluded Peter Bofin.

Source: Lusa