Mozambique: 2025 GDP should grow 3% after 1.6% fall in Q4 2024 – Standard Bank

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Mozambique: 2025 GDP should grow 3% after 1.6% fall in Q4 2024 – Standard Bank

10:41 CAT | 13 Feb 2025

File photo: Lusa

Standard Bank Mozambique’s chief economist has said that the country’s GDP fell by 1.6% by the end of 2024, and that the economy should grow by 3% this year, or 1% excluding the extractive sector.

“Our GDP growth estimates for 2024 at 2.5% y/y, after 5.4% y/y in 2023, reflect a 1.6% y/y contraction in GDP growth for Q4:24 ” writes Fáusio Mussá in the comment accompanying the release of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for January 2025 [issued on Thursday, January 6 2025].

These figures, he adds, “imply GDP growth excluding the extractive sector (mining and LNG) below 1% y/y in 2024, down from 2.2% y/y in 2023,” which represents growth of less than half that recorded in 2023, when the Mozambican economy expanded by 2.2% compared to the previous year.

For the first three months of this year, Fáusio Mussá expects the economic difficulties to keep the economy in the red, but nevertheless foresees a recovery in the rest of the year.

“A contraction in GDP growth is expected to persist through Q1:25, but it should turn the corner later in the year, consistent with our forecast of 3% y/y GDP growth for 2025,” says the economist.

READ: Business conditions weaken again in January – Standard Bank Mozambique PMI

Mozambique has been experiencing a climate of intense social unrest since October, with demonstrations and stoppages called first by former presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane, who rejects the election results of 9 October.

Protests, now on a smaller scale, have been taking place in different parts of the country and, as well as contesting the results, people are complaining about the rising cost of living and other social problems.

Since October, at least 327 people have died, including around two dozen minors, and around 750 have been shot during the protests, according to the electoral platform Decide, a non-governmental organisation that monitors electoral processes.

Source: Lusa