Insurgency in Cabo Delgado could result in civil war – EXX Africa

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Insurgency in Cabo Delgado could result in civil war – EXX Africa

2:58 CAT | 20 Jul 2020

[File photo: AFP / J. Nhamirre]

Consultancy EXX Africa suggested on Sunday (19-07) that northern Mozambique is increasingly dangerous, and that the situation could escalate into all-out civil war.

“It is likely that foreign investment that provides substantial government revenue will eventually be seen as a threat and a hostile presence in northern Mozambique,” the consultancy’ s analysts write in a report on the situation in the country.

“This scenario is reminiscent of other insurgencies in Africa, such as the Angolan enclave in Cabinda or the Delta River in Nigeria, and the need for effective measures, coordination and regional support and socio-economic investment in this poor northern region is increasingly urgent, because the insurgency risks risking [starting] a total civil war,” the report sent to investors reads.

Gas projects at risk

EXX Africa’s analysis stresses that “the drastic escalation of the insurgency and the Government’s inability to stem the violence in the province indicates that gas projects will be at greater risk of attack, even if, for now, oil companies are not the target direct from the militants”.

The rebels operating in Cabo Delgado, northern Mozambique, do not appear to be receiving much funding from the Islamic State international terrorist network.

“Attacks such as those in Mocímboa da Praia indicate that the insurgency is seeking support from local communities to seize and control the territory, and thus gain control of local government economic resources and revenues,” the document reads, recalling that “this tactic has already been tried in northern Nigeria by a group close to the Islamic State”, and could replay in Cabo Delgado “due to the failure of counterinsurgency measures and the lack of regional support to Mozambique”.

Mocímboa da Praia is one of the main towns in the province, located 70 kilometres south of the natural gas project construction sites, involving several international oil companies and led by Total.

The armed violence of the past two-and -a-half years has already caused the death of at least 700 people and sparked a humanitarian crisis affecting about 211,000 residents.

The United Nations in early June launched a US$35 million (€30 million) appeal to the international community for a Rapid Response Plan for Cabo Delgado to be implemented between May and December.

Source: Deutsche Welle