IMF foresees worse recession in all PALOP countries except Mozambique

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IMF foresees worse recession in all PALOP countries except Mozambique

3:46 CAT | 29 Jun 2020

in file CoM

The International Monetary Fund’s Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa, released today in Washington, today revises growth forecasts for all Portuguese Speaking African Countries (PALOP except Mozambique downward. (Read the full IMF document HERE]

According to the IMF, Mozambique is the only Portuguese-speaking African country which is expected to maintain growth, although the expected expansion of economic activity in the country was revised downwards from 2.2% to 1.4% this year, and from 4.7% to 4.2% in 2021.

All other Portuguese-speaking countries will be in recession this year, especially Equatorial Guinea, which is expected to face negative growth of 8.1%, but recovering next year to a forecast expansion of 2.5%.

Angola, one of Africa’s largest economies and the largest Portuguese-speaking country on the continent, will contract by 4% this year as a result of declining oil production and prices and the country’s financial difficulties.

Overall, “the regional economy is expected to contract 3.2%, 1.6 percentage points worse than projected in April, and shows a reduction in the growth forecast in 37 out of 45 economies. In nominal terms, the region’s GDP will be US$243 billion less than projected in October 2019”, according to the new forecasts.

The update shows the severity of the Covid-19 pandemic and assumes that the situation is worse, and the will be recovery slower, than IMF analysts had anticipated in April, when they estimated a contraction of 1.6%, even then the deepest of recent decades.

“Growth in the region is only expected to recover gradually, assuming that the pandemic fades and the end of lockdowns continues during the second half of 2020. Growth is expected to be 3.4% in 2021, which is 0.6 percentage points lower than the April projection,” the document reads.

The death toll from Covid-19 in Africa has risen to 9,657, up 173 in the last 24 hours, with more than 382,000 reported cases, latest statistics indicate

The Covid-19 pandemic has already claimed more than 500,000 lives and infected almost 10.1 million people in 196 countries and territories, according to a report by the French news agency AFP.

The disease is transmitted by a new coronavirus first identified in Wuhan, a city in central China, last December.

GDP.……………….2020….. …2021

Angola……………..-4,0…… ……..3,2

Cape Verde………….-5,5…… …..5,0

Guinea-Bissau………..-1,9….. …4,0

Equatorial Guinea…….-8,1….. …2,5

Mozambique…………….1,4…. …..4,2

São Tomé and Príncipe….-6,5. ….3,0

Variação percentual

Source:IMF

Source: Lusa