Health authorities do not recommend lockdown in Mozambique, even to contain community transmission of the new coronavirus – A Verdade

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Health authorities do not recommend lockdown in Mozambique, even to contain community transmission of the new coronavirus – A Verdade

2:12 CAT | 23 Jun 2020

Photo: A Verdade

The Director-General of the National Institute of Health (INS) said on Monday that to contain the spread of the new coronavirus in Mozambique, “we have not considered Level 4 measures as a possible solution The experience of African countries in relation to lockdowns has not been positive”.
Dr Ilesh Vendrodai Jani also warned that “there are an increasing number of districts in our country where cases of Covid-19 are beginning to be detected, which indicates a geographical spread of the epidemic, with a mixture of cases in urban and rural areas” .

Dr Jani began his assessment of the 14th week of the pandemic by warning that “the number of cases of Covid-19 in the world is growing at an alarming rate. The peak of the epidemic has not yet been reached on our continent, Southern Africa included”.

With 24,348 tests performed and 737 positive cases, the positivity rate in Mozambique has dropped to three percent. However “our (epidemiological) curve is not decreasing. In May we registered 178 cases; in June, with more than a week still to go, we have already registered 483 cases, almost three times more than in May, so there is no indication that the number of cases is going down”.

Mozambique’s chief epidemiologist says: “In the last three weeks we have found fewer positive cases than in the previous weeks, but this is a type of oscillation that can be expected in an epidemic that is dominated by outbreaks. In general, the trend of positive cases is growing.”

“The doubling time for Mozambique, until yesterday, was 17 days, a little higher than we had seen last week. It varies between 11 and 17 days, still twice the global average,” Dr Jani said. “Cabo Delgado and Nampula provinces have the highest rates, where we need to test fewer samples to find positive cases.”

“An increasing number of districts in our country are seeing cases of Covid-19. Currently about a third of districts have already registered at least one case, which indicates a geographical spread of the epidemic with a mixture cases in urban and rural areas, and may require increasing the intensity of our national response.”

The positivity rate in Nampula rose from 10.50 percent to 11.61 percent in just one week

An analysis of the epidemiological situation on Monday (22), revealed that the positivity rate in Cabo Delgado province went from 5.96 percent to 5.94 percent. The province “has maintained a relatively high positivity rate, above the national average, since the beginning.”

Na Província de Nampula a taxa de positividade #covid19 passou de 10,50% para 11,61% em 1 semana “3,5 vezes média nacional, a sintomatologia é metade sem sintomas e outra metade com sintomatologia ligeira, e o grupo etário que domina é dos 15 aos 59 anos” https://t.co/AQJk60Y9KI pic.twitter.com/rye0d1Gn7L

— Verdade Democracia (@DemocraciaMZ) June 23, 2020

Dr Ilesh Jani pointed out that in Pemba (city), where there are 65 cases, the rate of positivity “is approximately twice the national average. Approximately one third of the cases are in women, and we also see a dominance of the 15 to 59 year-old age group, similarly to what we see at national level. In terms of symptoms, we have half of the cases without symptoms and half with mild symptoms”.

Na Cidade de Pemba, onde existem 65 casos, a taxa de positividade #covid19 “é 2 vezes a média nacional. Aproximadamente 1/3 dos casos são em mulheres, temos também um dominância do grupo etário dos 15 aos 59 anos, temos metade dos casos sem sintomatologia”https://t.co/AQJk60Y9KI pic.twitter.com/S1pduvYNcM

— Verdade Democracia (@DemocraciaMZ) June 23, 2020

According to Dr Jani, the Covid-19 outbreak at Total oil facilities in the Afungi Peninsula is finally under control. It is from here that cases that spread to Pemba city, Palma district and Maputo city.

“We had one positive case in Afungi last week, who was discharged after two negative PCR tests. We installed sentinel surveillance in the most at-risk groups in the camp and they all tested negative. The biggest danger to the Afungi camp is importing cases,” Dr Jani observed.

However, in Nampula province, the positivity rate went from 10.50 percent to 11.61 percent in just one week. “The rate of positivity is high – 3.5 times the national average. Approximately half are without symptoms and the other half with mild symptoms, and the age group that dominates is the 15 to 59 year-olds.”

Although the possibility of preventing the spread of pandemic has now closed, Dr Jani said that it was still possible to contain it “by intensifying the implementation of preventive measures, improving them and making some structural arrangements. For example, the whole question of reorganising the markets has to be addressed. They are places of great agglomeration, so it is necessary to make a special investment in this type of activity. Transport stops are another place where it is necessary to act quickly to cut transmission”.

“The experience of African countries with regard to lockdown have not been positive”

“It is possible to reverse scenarios of community transmission, but we have seen in several countries around the world that the vigorous implementation of prevention measures can have an effect, and this is what we have to do in Nampula and Pemba,” Dr Jani says.

Dr Jani said there is not as yet any projection of a cumulative total of cases that will mark the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic in Mozambique.

“The peak of an epidemic can be reached with more or fewer cases. Our goal is to reach the peak of the epidemic with the fewest possible cases, and that is why we implemented the Level 3 measures from the beginning, even though we had very few cases. The objective of implementing Level 3 measures was exactly to reduce the number of cases that we would have when reaching the peak.

“The peak of the epidemic will not be reached at the same time across the country. It can happen in different places at different times (…) and hopefully as far away from today as possible, to allow us as a society to be better prepared to deal with this peak.”

The Director-General of the INS also made clear the Health Authorities’ position on any possible lockdown.

“In our context, we have not considered these Level 4 measures as a possible solution. The experience of African countries in relation to lockdowns has not been positive, because the side effects of implementing the lockdown have not been very good. We believe that the Level 3 measures that we have enacted are appropriate, proportionate and reasonable in relation to the epidemic that we have. What we need is for them to be implemented in the most thorough way possible,” Dr Ilesh Jani concluded.

By Adérito Caldeira

Source: A Verdade