Equatorial Guinea to be only CPLP member in recession this year, Mozambique to grow 3.8% – UN

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Equatorial Guinea to be only CPLP member in recession this year, Mozambique to grow 3.8% – UN

1:02 CAT | 18 Jan 2022

in file CoM

Equatorial Guinea will this year be the only member of the Community of Portuguese-Language Countries (CPLP) in recession, after its economy last year grew following six years in the red, according to the United Nations Department for Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA).

According to forecasts in its World Economic Outlook and Situation to 2022 report, Equatorial Guinea’s economy is set to shrink by 0.6% this year, slightly better than the continued 0.7% shrinkage UNDESA experts estimate for the newest CPLP member in 2023.

Equatorial Guinea has been in recession since 2015, except for last year, when growth is estimated by the UN to have been 1.9%. It is the only CPLP member set to record negative growth this year, according to the UN economists; all eight other members are expected to grow this year, as they did last.

UNDESA on Thursday upgraded its growth estimate for African economies, forecasting a 3.8% expansion last year (previous forecast 3.4%) and an acceleration to 4% this year. It notes that activity continues to recover from the unprecedented events of 2020, but at a “fragile” pace, with the growth forecast marked by “high uncertainty” and exposure to repeated waves of Covid-19 infection, as with the Omicron variant.

In the World Economic Outlook and Situation to 2022 report, UNDESA points out that pandemic mitigation measures, such as lockdowns and travel bans were the main tools used by governments, but had a major impact on economic activity.

The continent of Africa had one of the slowest recoveries in 2021, lagging behind the average growth of developing economies and the world, respectively 6.4% and 5.5%, notes the UNDESA report, which warns that to return to the pre-pandemic growth trajectory, Africa would need to grow by approximately 6% this year and next year, that is, faster than Asia.

UNDESA forecasts

GDP growth……………….2021…..2022…..2023

Angola………………………..0.0……2.4……3.3

Brazil……………………………4.7……0.5……1.9

Cape Verde…………………..3.8……5.0……5.1

Guinea-Bissau……………….2.6……3.6……4.4

Equatorial Guinea…………1.9…..-0.6…..-0.7

Mozambique………………….2.1……3.8……5.1

Portugal………………………..4.2……4.8……3.1

Sao Tome and Principe……2.5……3.6……3.8

East Timor…………………….2.2……4.0…..-2.2

Read: Mozambique: Structural economic reforms needed to accelerate growth – UN