The delicate mathematics of SA’s hung councils

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The delicate mathematics of SA’s hung councils

4:49 CAT | 19 Aug 2016

Sunday Times (File photo)

Now that the EFF and the DA have announced decisions taken following coalition talks, administrations in hung councils are due to be finalised over the next few days.

Saturday is the official deadline, but some councils have already delayed meetings until early next week.

The EFF decided not to enter coalition agreements with the ANC or the DA but will vote with opposition parties, including the DA, in municipalities when it comes to electing speakers, mayors and deputy mayors.

The DA has coalition agreements with COPE, the Freedom Front Plus, UDM and the ACDP, and a “reciprocal agreement” with the IFP. The EFF also said it would vote with the IFP in KwaZulu-Natal’s hung municipalities.

The African Independent Congress (AIC) has in principle entered a coalition agreement with the ANC in a number of these municipalities. The ANC had also approached the Pan Africanist Congress of Azania in Ekurhuleni and reportedly approached the Patriotic Alliance (PA).

Here are the most likely outcomes from hung municipalities.

Gauteng metros

The DA is set to take control of two of Gauteng’s metros and the strategic municipality of Mogale City with the help of the EFF vote and smaller political parties.

Johannesburg

• ANC: 126 votes — 121 of its own seats, four from the AIC’s and one from the Patriotic Alliance

• DA: 143 votes — 104 of its own seats, 30 from the EFF, five from the IFP and one each from the Freedom Front Plus, ACDP, UDM and COPE

Tshwane

• DA: 124 votes — 93 of its own seats, 25 from the EFF, four from the Freedom Front Plus and one each from the ACDP and COPE

• ANC: 90 votes — 89 of its own seats and one from the PAC

Ekurhuleni

• ANC: 115 votes — 109 of its own seats, four from the AIC and one each from the Patriotic Alliance and the PAC

• DA: 108 votes — 77 of its seats 25 from the EFF, two each from the IFP and FFPlus, and one each from the ACDP and COPE

KwaZulu-Natal

In KwaZulu-Natal the EFF said it would vote with the IFP in all hung municipalities. The DA also said that it had entered into a “reciprocal agreement” with IFP. This means the IFP is likely to govern at least four of the hung municipalities.

Abaqulusi

• IFP: 23 votes — 19 of its own seats, three from the DA and one from the EFF

• ANC: 21 votes, from its own seats

Estcourt

Al Jama-Ah’s two seats give it the deciding vote in Estcourt.

• ANC: 23 votes, from its own seats

• IFP: 21 votes — 18 seats of its own, plus three in total from the DA and EFF

Nqutu

• IFP: 17 votes — 15 seats of its own and one each from the DA and EFF

• ANC: 16 votes — 14 seats of its own and two from the NFP, which did not contest the elections but formed an alliance with the ANC before the polls

Mtubatuba

IFP had the majority of the vote at 44.86%, the ANC 43.98%, the DA 3.82% and the EFF 3.57%.

• IFP: 21 votes — 18 of its own seats plus two from the DA and one from the EFF

• ANC: 19 votes — 18 of its own seats plus one from the AIC, which has agreed in principle to co-operate with the party

Jozini

Jozini’s fate could lie in the hands of an independent candidate who has one seat. An attempt at a council sitting to elect the mayor and speaker had to be postponed on Thursday because no agreements could be reached.

• ANC: 19 votes, from its own seats

• IFP: 20 votes — 18 of its own seats plus one each from the DA and EFF

Mfolozi

ANC: 17 votes, from its own seats.

• IFP: 16 votes — 15 of its own seats and one from the EFF

Endumeni

• IFP: seven votes — four of its own seats, two from the DA and one from EFF

• ANC: six votes, from its own seats

North West

In Rustenburg in the North West, the EFF announced that it would be giving its vote to the Forum 4 Service Delivery (F4SD). The EFF had 24 seats and the F4SD four. The DA has 14 seats and the FF Plus and UDM one each. However, the ANC has 43 seats and the AIC one seat giving it a total of 44 seats. It was unclear who the Botho Community Movement (BCM), with its one seat, would vote for.

Western Cape

In the Western Cape, the DA has entered an agreement with the Karoo Gemeenskap Inisiatief (KGI), which is made up of the Karoo Gemeenskap Party (KGP), the Karoo Democratic Force (KDF) and the Karoo Ontwikkelings Party (KOP), in four municipalities.

• Prince Albert: The DA received 33.53%, the KGP 32.52%, and the ANC 31.63%. It was agreed that the mayoral position would be occupied by the KGP’s Goliath Lottering, with a DA deputy mayor and speaker.

• Laingsburg: The ANC garnered 46.08% of the vote, the DA 43.88%, the Karoo Ontwikkelings Party (KOP) 4.5%, and COPE 2.47%. The mayor will be Aubrey Marthinus from the KOP, with a DA deputy mayor and speaker.

• Beaufort West: The DA obtained 48.99%, the ANC 42.21%, the Karoo Democratic Force 5.18%, and the EFF 1.37%. The mayor, deputy mayor and speaker will be from the DA, the mayoral position will be held by Djorge Malooi.

• Central Karoo District Municipality: This covers the Laingsburg, Prince Albert and Beaufort West local municipalities. The mayor will be Noel Constable from the KDF, the deputy mayor and speaker will be from the KGP and the member of the mayoral committee will be from the DA.

• Knysna: The DA is set to govern the Knysna municipality after it clinched a national coalition deal with COPE.

• Bitou: The fate of the Bitou Local Municipality rests with the United Front, aligned to the National Union of Metalworkers of SA (Numsa). The ANC and the DA have six seats each and the Active United Front has one.

• Hessequa: The FF Plus, using its one seat to vote for the DA in Hessequa, provides it with the majority. The ANC and the DA have 8 seats each.

• Kannaland: DA councillors are being investigated by the party in Kannaland after they joined forces with the ANC in the municipality. Icosa led with 48.14%, followed by the DA with 27.52%, and the ANC with 21.51%.

Northern Cape

• Kgatelopele: The ANC will retain control or the DA will have to join forces with the Kgatelopele Community Forum to take over. The ANC has three seats, while the DA and the KCF have two each.

• Nama Khoi: The Nama Khoi municipality may be retained by the ANC but a coalition between the DA, COPE and the Khoisan Revolution could topple it.

Limpopo

There are two hung municipalities in Limpopo — Modimolle/Mookgopong and Thabazimbi.

• Modimolle/Mookgopong: the ANC received 47.58% of the vote, the DA 24.11%, the EFF 19.44% and the FF Plus 5.88%. The DA could take control of the municipality with the EFF’s six seats and the FF Plus’s two seats, giving it a total of 15 votes. The ANC had 13 seats.

• Thabazimbi: the Thabazimbi Residents Association (TRA) will decide who governs in the Thabazimbi municipality. The ANC has 10 seats, the DA five, the EFF five and FF Plus one, which would give them a total of 11 votes. The TRA has two seats but it is not clear how it will vote.

Free State

• Metsimaholo: the ANC is likely to the Metsimaholo municipality if the EFF does not vote with the DA. The party on Wednesday said it would vote for the Metsimaholo Community Association. The ANC has 19 seats, the DA 12, the EFF eight, the MCA two and the FF Plus one. If the opposition clubs together, it will run the council.

Source: Business Day Live