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Nigeria’s time as Africa’s biggest fuel importer has ended as the Dangote mega-refinery boosts production. The title is now held by South Africa, where operational fuel-making capacity has shrunk, according to a consultancy.
Billionaire Aliko Dangote’s 650 000-barrel-a-day plant started ramping up in 2024, part of Africa’s leading crude producer’s aim to stop sending oil to Europe to be processed and shipped back.
“Nigerian imports are dropping as a result of the continued operation of Dangote,” Elitsa Georgieva, executive director at energy consultancy CITAC, said in response to questions. “Since the beginning of this year, South African imports have been consistently highest in sub-Saharan Africa.”
The shift illustrates the ambition of several African nations, including Uganda and Mozambique, to increase domestic refining capacity, a difficult task even for Dangote whose $20 billion project went over budget and took longer than anticipated.
Still, traders including Glencore Plc and Vitol SA have found opportunities to supply fuel to South Africa where a number of refineries have shut since 2020.
South Africa imported 4.2 million tons of refined products in the first quarter of 2025, while Nigeria landed 3.1 million tons, according to CITAC. It estimates South Africa will import around 15.5 million tons this year, almost twice as much as Kenya with 8.9 million tons and Nigeria with 6.4 million.
Over the last five years, South Africa’s refining capacity has been halved due to accidents and a lack of investment, with imports meeting more than 60% of demand, according to state-owned logistics firm Transnet. The government last year bought the shuttered Sapref refinery from Shell Plc and BP Plc to try and grow domestic production again.
South Africa could draw even more fuel traders in the near-term as it seeks supply. Swiss commodities firm Gunvor was among companies shortlisted to buy Shell’s retail stations, people familiar with the matter said last month.
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