CIP Mozambique Elections: What changes will the CNE and CC make? Can it keep Renamo in 2nd place?

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CIP Mozambique Elections: What changes will the CNE and CC make? Can it keep Renamo in 2nd place?

7:08 CAT | 20 Oct 2024

File photo: Lusa

What changes will the CNE and CC make? Can it keep Renamo in 2nd place?

The official provincial and district results do not accurately represent the actual voting, but they do determine the composition of parliament, which also determines appointments to electoral and other commissions.

Frelimo will be pleased the they have won more than three quarters of parliament seats, because that will allow them to change the constitution. But Podemos is on course to become the second most voted party in parliament, which is the official opposition and receives significant money from government. Frelimo would clearly prefer to have a docile Renamo remaining in that position.

Parliamentary seats according to the official provincial results will be 195 for Frelimo, 31 for Podemos, 20 for Renamo, and 4 for MDM. The National Elections Commission (CNE) by law must check the invalid ballot papers and include in the count any that are really valid. And the CNE has always argued it has the right to change the results with no explanation, publicity, or record of the change. This has happened in all previous elections.

Frelimo will want to keep its three quarters majority, which requires 188 seats, and also will not take so many seats from Podemos as to be obvious.

Seatsbyparty.cip_

If the CNE only took 4 seats from Podemos in Nampula and Maputo Province and gave them to Renamo, the Podemos majority over Renamo would still be 27 to 24. One choice would be for Frelimo to give 4 seats of its own to Renamo, giving it a 28 to 27 margin. To not be grossly obvious, Frelimo could not take them from Podemos. The 4 seats might be taken from Gaza, Tete and Inhambane which had 87%, 85% and 78% votes for Frelimo. Many of those who voted in Gaza and Inhambane were ghosts.

Turnout.cip_.cip_

Both Gaza and Tete have districts which are the healthiest in the world – everyone who registered last year is still alive and healthy and votes, and they all vote for Frelimo. Several districts are notorious for this occurring in every election. In Tete the healthiest are Marara (97% turnout, 99% Frelimo), Zumbu (95% turnout, 97% Frelimo), Changara (92%, 97%) and Macanga (92% , 96%),

In past elections the CNE has, of course in secret, removed some of those votes, leading to changes in the numbers of seats for the parties. So it might do that again.

Chartfrtete.cip_