CIP Mozambique Elections: More Gaza ghost voters, 57% register so far

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CIP Mozambique Elections: More Gaza ghost voters, 57% register so far

10:40 CAT | 25 May 2023

File photo: Notícias

Does Gaza plan to register 305,000 “ghost voters”?

It seems that the Gaza registration inflation of 2019 is being repeated. The National Statistics Institute (INE) and national STAE say there are 517,000 potential voters in Gaza districts with municipalities. But STAE in Gaza says there are 822,000 voting age adults. Once again STAE in Gaza inflating the numbers.

In the 2019 elections, STAE in Gaza registered 329,430 more voters than there were voting age adults in the province, and 161,641 of these “ghosts” voted, mainly for Frelimo and its presidential candidate Filipe Nyusi. This increased the number of parliament seats for Frelimo by four. Our full report on fraud in the 2019 elections is HERE.

The numbers were released by the Deputy Provincial Director of STAE, Jorge Machai, appointed by Renamo, at a press conference in Xai Xai Tuesday last week (16 May). He says there is great resistance to sharing information about the voter registration in Gaza, and for this reason published internal numbers. Each provincial STAE has a Frelimo-aligned director and deputy directors formally indicated by Frelimo and Renamo.

The “CIP Eleições” Bulletin contacted the Gaza STAE provincial directorProvincial, Mário Cossane, to explain why projections are being used that are different from those issued by the INE, but he refused to comment. He said that, first, he was outside the office with his family, second, that he did not know who was ringing him; and third, that he did not give interviews over the phone. Then he hung up.

The most recent data (to 10 May) show that Gaza province has registered 265.996 voters which is 51.4% of the number of real voters to be registered. But, if the projections of the provincial STAE are used, then by 10 May Gaza had only registered 32.3% of the target.

According to the estimates of the provincial STAEProvincial, Gaza province has 822,109 adults eligible to register, which is 305,089 more than the INE and STAE national count. Bilene and Massingir districts, with the lowest population density, are the only districts in which the INE projections will be used. The largest constituencies in Gaza will use the STAE projections.

The STAE data show that Chókwè district, the largest constituency in Gaza, has the largest number of potential “ghost” voters: more than 116,000. Chibuto is the second largest constituency with 64,000 additional. Xai-Xai and Manjacaze project registration of 64,000 and 58,000 “ghost” voters respectively. The provincial STAE appears to be using the data base from the 2019 elections.

Registration after 30 days: 57% of voters registered by Sunday

5.5 million voters had been registered by Sunday (21 May), which is 57% of the 9.9 million voting age adults eligible to register. The Electoral Administration Technical Secretariat (STAE) announced this on Monday (22 May), during the conference on the balance of the 30 days of voter registration, organised by the Centre for Public Integrity and by the “Mais Integridade” (“More Integrity”) observer consortium.

From the data presented, Maputo City has already registered 397,000 voters, and Maputo province has registered about 700,000. Gaza has reached 60% of its target and by Sunday it had registered 320,000 voters. The figures for the other provinces were: Inhambane, about 300,000; Manica 480,000; Sofala 509,000; Tete 425,000; Zambézia, 780,000; Nampula, 820,000; Cabo Delgado 500,000; and Niassa about 300,000.

Will registration be higher than 2018?

According to STAE, if this trend is maintained, the figures from the 2018 registration will be surpassed. But Miguel de Brito, the head of the IDEA International Mission in Mozambique, disagreed with the STAE optimism.

He told the conference that the pace of registration at national level is slow and has not changed over the three periods analysed in 26 days of registration. The pace of registration remains at 82% and if there is no acceleration, the figure of 88.9% of 2018 will not be reached.

Some provinces are speeding up their registration (Cabo Delgado, Nampula and Zambézia), others are stagnant (Niassa, Tete and Sofala) but others are slowing down (Manica, Inhambane, Gaza, Maputo Province and Maputo City).

Gaza shows the best performance in registration, with levels of higher than expected in the initial days, but now it is at the normal level with a tendency to slow down.

At the same event, the results of the electoral observation by the Centre for Public Integrity and of the “More Integrity” civil society observer consortium were presented.

Source: Centro de Integridade Pública - CIP