Cabo Delgado: SADC hasn’t gone beyond rhetoric – EIU | Savana

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Cabo Delgado: SADC hasn’t gone beyond rhetoric – EIU | Savana

5:05 CAT | 22 Jan 2021

File photo: O País

Armed violence in the province of Cabo Delgado has been an issue central to the SADC, but the organisation’s stance has been limited to rhetoric, according to the latest analysis by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), cited today by weekly Mozambican newspaper Savana.

The EIU points out that the last SADC defence and security summit acknowledged the need for “an integrated strategy ”in the fight against violence in Cabo Delgado, but there has been no progress towards concrete action.
The SADC’s hesitation, the analysis continues, may be related to fears that military action against the insurgency in Cabo Delgado may be prolonged and chaotic.

“The SADC is divided over the degree of military involvement in fight against armed groups in northern Mozambique and on the urgency of a political and economic approach to addressing the roots of the Cabo Delgado insurgency,” the analysis suggests.

The EIU also points out that recognition by the Mozambican government of the need to tackle the socio-economic root of violence in Cabo Delgado has not gone beyond words, and the focus has remained on military intervention.
In the absence of a clear SADC position, the Mozambican authorities have shown a greater inclination towards bilateral military cooperation, spiking the interest of Tanzania, which neighbours Mozambique to the north, and Zimbabwe, the research entity says.

On the other hand, the European Union has already announced that it is ready to support troops with training and provide logistical support, but has ruled out the possibility of deploying European military personnel on the battlefield.

The Mozambican president, Filipe Nyusi, has underlined the imperative of managing carefully external support in the fight against the insurrection in Cabo Delgado, pointing out the need to develop internal capacity.

External support will help stem the insurgency’s progress, but it will take time to mobilise and to produce results in the war against insurgents, the EIU warns.

The threat of regionalization of the conflict is a reality, the analysis continues, recalling the attack on Tanzania in October attributed to armed groups operating in Mozambican territory.

Mozambican authorities will maintain control of the territory and ensure the protection of the areas where natural gas projects are rolling out in Cabo Delgado province, but the EIU predicts a deterioration in the humanitarian situation, even as 2,400 people have died in the conflict and around 560,000 people forced to flee their homes.

Slight economic upturn

On the economic front, the EIU says it expects Mozambique, after a fall in 2020, to register slow growth in 2021 and 2022, with a recovery in coal. Gross domestic product (GDP) may accelerate in 2023, with the development of natural gas projects in Cabo Delgado province.

The fiscal deficit will drop from an estimated 13.7% of GDP in 2020 to 10% in 2021 and to 6% in 2023, as a result of expenditure cuts. In 2024, the deficit is projected to expand to 6.7%, as a result of the expense of holding the country’s seventh round of general elections.

The current account deficit will fall to 32.3% of GDP in 2021 and to 6% in 2023, as a result of cuts in spending.

In 2024, the deficit will increase to 32.3% of GDP, with exports growing from an estimated 32.7% in 2020 to 34.7% of GDP in 2023, as a result of the increase in imports for the natural gas projects, but falling back to 33% of GDP in 2025, when gas exports take off.

The EIU has no doubt that the political situation in the 2021-2025 period will remain challenging, due to the socio-economic impact of Covid-19. With the prevailing economic weakness and the reduced fiscal space for effective social protection, an increase in social tensions is predicted.
Frelimo’s hold on power will not waver, the analysis continues, because the party exercises strong dominance over life in the country, in particular through the Defence and Security Forces.

Regarding the Renamo Military Junta, the EIU predicts a weakening of activity by virtue of the capitulation of figures close to the movement and the continuing activities of the Defence and Security Forces.

Source: Savana