Cabo Delgado: No military intervention will work without more investment – NKC African Economics

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Cabo Delgado: No military intervention will work without more investment – NKC African Economics

5:39 CAT | 24 Sep 2020

File photo: Lusa

Consultant NKC African Economics said today that no amount of military intervention would resolve terrorism in the Mozambican province of Cabo Delgado unless there is also investment in the region, and a guarantee that gas revenues would benefit the population.

“The problem in Cabo Delgado is not simply military. The main motivation behind the insecurity is the neglect and underdevelopment of the province, as well as of neighbouring Nampula and Niassa, by successive governments, and the marginalisation of the province’s population, which has resulted in widespread poverty and unemployment,” analyst Louw Nel writes.

In an analysis of South Africa’s possible involvement in Cabo Delgado province, sent to clients and to which Lusa has had access, Louw Nel notes that “no military intervention will bear fruit if it is not carried out in conjunction with a larger and more substantial development of the region, and with the guarantee that the huge revenues from liquefied natural gas will benefit the local population”.

On the involvement of South Africa, which prefers a multilateral response, the analyst says that this will only be possible if Mozambique asks, and pointed out that Mozambican authorities have been “reluctant” to ask for help.
Louw stresses that “budgetary constraints continue to be a major hurdle” and warns that another major problem with military intervention abroad is possible reprisals by the groups involved.

“There are several risks, in addition to lives and equipment being lost, the biggest of which is the threat of retribution in South Africa. Additionally there is the issue of human rights abuses, making reputation another risk to consider,” the analyst says.

According to NKC African Economics, South African financial entities have invested around US$900 million (about €770 million) in natural gas exploration projects in Mozambique.

On September 16, the Mozambican government asked the European Union for support in logistics and specialised training of its forces to stop the armed incursions of groups classified as terrorists in Cabo Delgado, in the north of the country.

The request consists of a letter to which Lusa had access and which was sent to the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, by the head of Mozambican diplomacy, Verónica Macamo.

Cabo Delgado is the northernmost coastal province of Mozambique, home to natural gas mega-projects. It is facing a humanitarian crisis, with more than 1,000 dead and 300,000 internally displaced – the result of three years of armed conflict between Mozambican and rebel forces, some of whose attacks have been claimed by the Islamic State ‘jihadist’ group, but whose origins remain unclear.

Source: Lusa