Cabo Delgado: Mozambique to maintain approach – Eurasia

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Cabo Delgado: Mozambique to maintain approach – Eurasia

7:27 CAT | 03 May 2021

File photo: DW

The Eurasia consultancy said on Thursday that the declaration of ‘force majeure’ by the French oil company Total regarding its cessation of operations in northern Mozambique will not significantly change the Mozambican government’s approach to the conflict.

“The government’s approach to the insurgency has been to treat the problem as a security issue, rather than a development issue, and that remains the fundamental issue,” analysts write in a comment on the French oil company’s decision.

“Total’s declaration of ‘force majeure’ will not change the government’s approach to the insurgency; although Total will not completely abandon the project, declaring ‘force majeure’ means that it is unlikely that work will resume at least for another year.

“Consequently, the expected boost to government revenues from the liquefied natural gas project will be delayed by at least two years, worsening the outlook for the evolution of the Mozambican economy,” the analysts write in a note sent to customers, to which Lusa has had access.

In addition, they point out, President Filipe Nyusi, “continues to resist external intervention in the conflict beyond training and sharing intelligence”, although the deployment of troops from the Southern African Development Community “is increasingly probable, even though it is unlikely to change the course of the conflict”.

In the consultancy’s opinion, the government’s approach is the main impediment to resolving the insurgency in the north of the country, which threatens to postpone the country’s economic development.

“Local discontent fuelled by underdevelopment, especially among the Mwani ethnic minority in Cabo Delgado, has fuelled the insurgency, and yet the government has failed to make development initiatives a priority,” the analysts argue, adducing the under-funding and slow roll-out of Northern Integrated Development Agency operations in evidence.

“The government will not change its approach, as it does not want to appear weak to its opponents within the [Frelimo] party, who are mostly military hardliners,” the Eurasia note concludes.

Source: Lusa