AON: Mozambique’s “muscular response” to attacks may increase radicalisation

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AON: Mozambique’s “muscular response” to attacks may increase radicalisation

12:14 CAT | 30 Oct 2017

A director of AON Financial Solutions yesterday warned of the predictable escalation of violence in northern Mozambique following the government’s “muscular response” to attacks by a radical Islamist group.

“If the government’s reaction in the face of a possible new attack is very strong, it will lead to radical groups which may be identical to the large groups of Islamic radicals, leading to an escalation of violence, abductions and terrorism directed at foreign entities, police and the government,” Pedro Pinheiro told Lusa.

“In our analysis, this is what is happening,” said the head for Portugal of AON, an insurance broker specialising in political risk.

Asked if the reaction of the government of Mozambique to the first attack was so strong that it could generate a wave of sympathy for the attackers, the AON official replied that “depending on the future response of the government, it will be possible to respond to this, but full repression, in the way it was first carried out, can lead to a spiral that leads people to radicalise themselves more quickly”.

Pinheiro added that “the risk that is happening, and what the market is already anticipating, is what the state will do next with these localised groups”, and noted, nonetheless, that “the AON political risk rating, ‘Severe’, has been stable since the beginning of the year because there was already information and outbreaks of kidnapping, especially in areas where there are foreign companies involved in mining”.

Mozambique police announced on April 10 that they had arrested 52 suspects in connection with the group, but a police source in Mocímboa da Praia told Lusa on the 12th that several people had been released because they had nothing to do with the incidents.

An armed radical Islamist group composed of young local people attacked police in Mocímboa da Praia and two other outposts on October 5.

The village was to all extents and purposes shut down for two days due by clashes between the police and the group, which the PRM says resulted in the deaths of two officers, 14 assailants and a community leader who was shot down by the group, and an indeterminate number of wounded.

“Our political risk map [or Mozambique] already anticipated conflict with Renamo, which contributed to keeping the country’s political risk at ‘Severe’ [fifth on a scale of six], so these October events are better viewed as a terrorist than a political event,” Pedro Pinheiro told Lusa.

In its country analysis, AON says that the country’s internal challenges “have been amplified by the hidden debt scandal, which has increased the already unsustainable burden of debt and caused international donors to suspend funding”.

“The biggest economic impact of the debt crisis was the significant depreciation of the metical, which triggered inflation,” AON analysts write, concluding that “the risk of capital transfers and the risks of sovereign default are now high”.

Source: Lusa