Mozambique: Renamo negotiator assassinated – Analysis by Joseph Hanlon

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Mozambique: Renamo negotiator assassinated – Analysis by Joseph Hanlon

4:03 CAT | 10 Oct 2016

Senior Renamo figure Jeremias Pondeca was gunned down in Maputo Saturday (8 October). He was a member of the joint commission negotiating a settlement between Renamo and government. He was a member of the Council of State, an advisory body to the President of the Republic, and had been a member of parliament 1995-2004.

Pondeca had two businesses in the new fish market on the Marginal and he normally opened the businesses and then took a run along the Marginal. He was running past the Game store at 07.00 when he was shot seven times by four men. (AIM En 9 Oct; Noticias & O Pais 10 Oct) So far there has been no statement from President Nyusi.

Renamo-government talks were set to resume this afternoon (10 October), having been suspended since 30 September. Talks had been suspended by the mediators for two reasons. First was to allow the two sides to consult privately to try to find some way to break the negotiating log-jam. Second was two interventions by the mediators, and especially de facto chief mediator Mario Raffaelli. In a very formalistic way, Renamo-Frelimo negotiations have always rigidly followed an agreed agenda, dealing with only one point at a time. The second point on the agenda is decentralization and Renamo’s demand to appoint six governors. Raffaelli tabled a paper on 27 September setting out how Renamo’s demands could be met without amending the constitution, and unexpectedly the next day the government asked more time to consider the paper, suggesting they were taking it seriously. Raffaelli also gained agreement to move on to the third item on the agenda, integration of Renamo forces into the police and military, before the second point was resolved.

Comment: The negotiators set up sub-committees and Pondeca headed the Renamo team on the sub-committee to draft decentralization legislation. Thus Pondeca was a key person in the negotiations over the Raffaelli paper on the governors. And in an interview published Friday, Dhlakama put more stress on the joint commission. Pondeca’s murder will be seen by many as Frelimo’s response to Renamo’s demand to name governors.

Killing Renamo officials has become part of the government’s military strategy in the war, but the killing of a negotiator is a dramatic escalation, which also seems a clear message to Dhlakama that it is not safe for him to go to Maputo.

When Raffaelli said that Frelimo had asked for more time to analyse his proposal on governors, he made it clear that the request came from President Filipe Nyusi himself, who was personally analysing the proposal. Does Nyusi, a former defence minister, have control of the hit squad, or is it acting independently of Nyusi to end the talks? There are repeated rumours that Nyusi does not control the military or the security services, and that there is a faction that believes Renamo can only be defeated militarily, which in turn requires substantial weapons purchases (see article below).

Renamo provincial assembly member gunned down

Armindo Ncuche, head of the economic affairs commission in the Tete provincial assembly, and Renamo political delegate in Moatize district, was gunned down in broad daylight on 22 September. He was struck by five bullets at about 13.30 as he was going home from a meeting of the assembly.

Subsequently Renamo boycotted the Manica provincial assembly for fear of assassinations, after a Frelimo member, Joao Roque, was found to have a pistol with him while the assembly was in session. (AIM En 27, 29 Sept).

By: Joseph Hanlon

Source: News Reports & Clippings