Mozambique Elections: Parallel counts point to Renamo victories in Maputo and Matola – AIM

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Mozambique Elections: Parallel counts point to Renamo victories in Maputo and Matola – AIM

8:08 CAT | 23 Oct 2023

FILE - For illustration purposes only. [File photo: Lusa]

By next Thursday, 26 October, the National Elections Commission (CNE) should announce results from all 65 municipalities, and submit them for validation to the Constitutional Council

Parallel counts by election observers indicate that Mozambique’s main opposition party, Renamo, won comfortable victories in the 11 October municipal elections in Maputo and in the adjacent city of Matola.

The district elections commissions in both cities, in announcing the “intermediate count”, had allocated victory to the ruling Frelimo Party.

But the “Mais Integridade” (“More Integrity”) electoral observation coalition was given access to the copies held by Renamo of the results sheets (“editais”) from 833 of the 889 Maputo polling stations. An edital is drawn up immediately after the count in each polling station. By law, every party competing in the election in that municipality must be given a copy of the edital.

So Frelimo, Renamo and the second opposition party, the Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM), should all have copies of the editais. If anyone believes the Renamo copies have somehow been falsified, it should be an easy matter to compare them with those held by Frelimo or by the district elections commission itself.

The “Mais Integridade” parallel count for the 833 polling stations showed Renamo winning with 198,207 votes (55 per cent). Frelimo came second with 132,850 votes (37 per cent), while the MDM had 23,760 votes (seven per cent). The remaining one per cent of the votes was shared between five minor parties and groups.

This count showed a Renamo victory in all the five most populous municipal districts (KaMpfumo, Nhlamanculo, Maxaquene, KaMavota and KaMabukwana). Frelimo won in the two small, outlying districts of Katembe and Kanyaka.

In Matola, the “Mais Integridade” parallel count covered 791 out of the 895 polling stations. Here Renamo won with 190,159 votes (58.9 per cent). Frelimo took 110,337 votes (34.2 per cent) and the MDM 18,570 (5.7 per cent). Here also there were five minor parties and groups which, between them, took one per cent of the vote.

The Renamo vote should have been higher in both cities, but there are signs that over 12,500 Renamo votes were fraudulently invalidated.

A valid vote can be invalidated when a dishonest member of the polling station staff adds an ink mark to make it look as if the voter concerned has tried to vote for more than one party. This has happened in past elections, and has been publicly denounced by previous National Elections Commissions. But nobody has ever been arrested for this falsification.

Fraudulent invalidation of votes leaves statistical traces. In Mozambican cities, where there are high levels of literacy, normally fewer than five per cent of votes are invalid. But in Matola this time, 105 polling stations had eight per cent or higher invalid votes. In 25 polling stations, the number of votes declared invalid ran at between 25 and 49 per cent. This would never happen without interference.

Courts have annulled the elections in the Kampfumo and Nlhamanculo municipal districts, and have ordered a recount in all of Matola.

Time is now running out. By next Thursday, 26 October, the National Elections Commission (CNE) should announce results from all 65 municipalities, and submit them for validation to the Constitutional Council. But it is hard to see how two repeat elections in Maputo, and the Matola recount can be held by Thursday.

Source: AIM