Cabo Delgado: “Spread to the south was expectable” – historian

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Cabo Delgado: “Spread to the south was expectable” – historian

2:26 CAT | 24 Jun 2022

File photo: Alfredo Zuniga/AFP

In Cabo Delgado, alarms are sounding about the spread of terrorist attacks to areas hitherto considered safe. Historian Yussuf Adam says that the insurgents “are not fleeing”, they are doing “guerrilla warfare”.

There have been several attacks in parts of Cabo Delgado province previously considered safe in recent weeks. These areas are even sheltering displaced persons from regions more closely associated with the insurgency.

The new attacks have caused an as yet undetermined number of deaths, and led to the flight of 17,000 people. They have also reignited the debate on the effectiveness of the Mozambican government’s strategy in the fight against the insurgency in Cabo Delgado.

In an interview with DW Africa, Mozambican historian Yussuf Adam helps to contextualise the situation on the ground.

DW Africa: What are the immediate consequences of these attacks for these areas considered safe?

Yussuf Adam (YA): One way or another, the consequence is that, in most investments and mining projects – for example, graphite or other materials – investors will be more careful. They may even withdraw their workers, especially international ones, for security reasons. It is well known that the United States of America prohibits the movement of its citizens to territories considered unsafe. What is happening is nothing we weren’t expecting…

DW Africa: So, in your view, what is happening was predictable…

YA: It was predictable, because guerrilla warfare is this: it is a type of war in which the enemy attacks here, flees there, takes a turn there… and the Mozambican Army, SAMIM and the Rwandans are responding as best they can, but they are not always able to react to the guerrilla, which has specific characteristics.

Fdscd.dw_ — *FILE – Army Patrol in Macomia, Mozambique. The Armed Forces of Defence of Mozambique (FADM) will have to adapt to the enemy’s “tactics”, Yussuf Adam says. [File photo: DW]*

DW Africa: Do you think the insurgents have changed their strategy?

YA: There are several theories about the type of attacks carried out by the insurgents, that they all attack in large groups… But I think these are mirages. They gather to prepare an attack and then try to dissolve themselves in the middle of the forest, in the middle of the villages, etc… Now, their presence in the south is something new, something that many people thought would not happen. I am not part of that group: I always thought they were going to make attacks in the south of Cabo Delgado and even try to go to Nampula…

DW Africa: Do you think the insurgents’ intention is to reach Nampula?

YA: They have already entered Nampula province. Now, one needs to know that attacks have a preparation, a study phase. It is necessary to set goals. And it is necessary to study the geography, the terrain… This is extremely important to make war. And [what the insurgents] are doing is taking advantage of everything they can to hide, to move around… So what they are doing is expanding their area of attack, to create more problems for the Mozambican army and for its allies.

DW Africa: And in this scenario, what should be the response of the Mozambican government?

YA: For me, the right answer is not military. So I was pleased when the government approved the development plan for northern Mozambique, which is a very good plan. If this plan is implemented, it will create an extremely important socio-economic and political base to support the Mozambican army’s fight against the insurgents.

But we cannot forget that soldiers on the ground need resources, supplies, water and military equipment. They also need their salaries paid, and I’m not sure that all of that is secured at this point. But this is the war we have, in the conditions we are in.

DW Africa: It is believed that the insurgents are attacking in certain areas because they are on the run and that there is no strategy behind these attacks. Do you agree?

YA: That’s an opinion, as valid as any. But it is known that this is the tactic of the guerrilla. They attack today here, tomorrow there. Naturally, there are areas where there are more troops from SAMIM and other units, but this is normal. The insurgents are not running from one side to the other. That’s their tactic: they hit and run. As far as I know, there are no liberated zones or semi-liberated zones. They are in constant motion. This is what ‘guerrilla warfare’ means.

Source: Deutsche Welle