Cabo Delgado conflict: Analysts in Lisbon ponder roots, risks and options – report

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Cabo Delgado conflict: Analysts in Lisbon ponder roots, risks and options – report

10:10 CAT | 21 Dec 2020

Nazim Ahmad, the Representative in Portugal and in Mozambique of the Aga Khan Development Network , an organisation with projects in the Mozambican province of Cabo Delgado, has said that there is “a risk” of violence in the region spreading across the country.

Speaking to Lusa, the Diplomatic Representative of the Ismaili Imamate to the Portuguese Republic, said that “the problem of Cabo Delgado has very specific characteristics, within the context of that region,” but, even so, “the spread of the problem [across the country] must be a risk to be taken into account when analysing it”.

Nazim Ahmad was the first of four persons heard in the last two weeks by the Parliamentary Commission on Foreign Affairs and Portuguese Communities on Portugal’s cooperation with Mozambique and the situation of violence in the Mozambican province of Cabo Delgado.

In addition to the head of the Aga Khan Foundation in Portugal, the commission heard- behind closed doors – journalist António Mateus, journalist and commentator Nuno Rogeiro, and professor and researcher Fernando Jorge Cardoso.

For Nazim Ahmad, one of those responsible for strengthening relations between Portugal and the Ismaili community, the situation in Cabo Delgado today “is particularly worrying, given the dimension it has been taking and the respective consequences for the people of the area”, but “the religious issue does not account for what is happening”.

What is happening is that Cabo Delgado “is a region with easy access by land or sea for extremist groups, due to its geostrategic location,” but “also by dint of economic and social weaknesses”..

Investments in natural gas exploitation in the region are, in his opinion, another factor contributing to the interest of radical groups.

“Naturally, in addition to strategic interests, economic interests move these radical groups, who try, through their actions, to spread terror and control these territories. This situation is common to an entire region which, in addition to northern Mozambique, includes southern Tanzania and Uganda,” he said.

Through its various infrastructure and development projects, the Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) and the Aga Khan Foundation have been present in the region for more than 20 years, and for this reason have “observed with great concern this increase in violence and insecurity”, Ahmad said.

Nazim Ahmad considers that the Mozambican executive “has made every possible effort” to combat the problem, but given the scale of the situation, “only with concerted and focused international aid, and with the full involvement of the Mozambican government, will it be possible to put an end to” the problem.

For Fernando Jorge Cardoso, professor and researcher at the Centre for International Studies at ISCTE – University Institute of Lisbon,, who has extensive experience in the analysis of African issues, the conflict in Cabo Delgado “is a jihadist war, but not that alone” and it “was not caused by the discovery of gas” in the region.

However, economic resources have “boosted its visibility and international interest in it”.

In Cardoso’s opinion, there are internal and external players in the conflict and both “are relevant”. The problem of internal players “must be managed by the Mozambican executive, with the help of the Islamic Council”, and that of the external players “by the Mozambican government with international support”, he proposed.

“There must be external armed intervention to protect the population,” and quickly, the researcher proposed, while acknowledging that “the Mozambican government is reluctant to see the presence of forces not controlled by itself” in the territory.

As for Portugal, said Cardoso,”it must intervene militarily, if invited to do so”, but only “with the formation of specialised counter guerrilla units and logistical support – bilaterally and multilaterally”.

Journalist António Mateus said Portugal “must assume the role of helping Mozambique through political and diplomatic channels, taking the matter to international bodies”, and taking advantage of the presidency of the European Council it will assume from January 1st.

The objective would be that the European Union, in dialogue with the United Nations and Mozambique, would be able to “make the Mozambican government see that it cannot resolve the situation in Cabo Delgado without external intervention”.

This external intervention “must be totally transparent, that is, it must wear the United Nations hat”, he underlined. “Portugal must be the engine of this initiative and can join this external force,” he added, but not as “a country acting directly on the ground”.

Portugal should also have “a proposal for social action for the Cabo Delgado region, to be presented in the European Union, so that it can also be discussed with the United Nations,” Mateus suggested.

The hearings on Cabo Delgado began on December 9 following requests of from three Portuguese political parties: the PSD, PS and CDS-PP, and were approved on December 19, though still with no date set for the hearing of Minister of State and Foreign Affairs, Augusto Santos Silva.

Meanwhile, the head of European foreign policy, Josep Borrell, has asked the Portuguese foreign minister to go to Mozambique as his envoy and discuss the situation in Cabo Delgado with national authorities.