Insurgents in Cabo Delgado: Pemba is not in danger, analysts say

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Insurgents in Cabo Delgado: Pemba is not in danger, analysts say

3:14 CAT | 14 Aug 2020

File photo: DW

Despite the seizure of Mocímboa da Praia port, analysts say the insurgents will not take the capital, Pemba. The Defence Minister says the FDS is trying to regain control of the situation.

The port of Mocímboa da Praia was the target of a bold capture by insurgents last Tuesday (11.08), but analysts contacted by DW Africa say that, despite having considerable military force, the insurgents cannot take the capital of Cabo Delgado, Pemba.

The executive director of the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), Adriano Nuvunga, maintains there are several factors preventing the insurgents from taking the capital, geography being one of them.

“I don’t think that would be possible. Specific characteristics may have facilitated the capture in Mocímboa da Praia. The islands, the patrolling difficulties, monitoring difficulties for the State, the surrounding forest, dense woods, the districts’ extension; all this allows manoeuvrability. But I don’t think this is possible at the level of Pemba,” he explains.

State failures

Even so, Adriano Nuvunga has no doubt that the insurgents are gaining ground in Cabo Delgado, pointing out the flaws. “We failed as a state, we failed as a society, and the signals of an the escalation of violence were coming from all sides.”

For Nuvunga, “the insurgents appear more organised, more capable, when using more sophisticated armaments”.

The executive director of the CDD believes that the attacks in Cabo Delgado will affect the advance of megaprojects. “It is true that we realised this. But what we did not want to see was a closure, because, in the end, what will happen with the unfolding of the insurgency is that Mozambique will be trapped. The projects will be isolated,” the analyst says.

Political interests

The editor of the weekly newspaper ‘Zambezie’, Egídio Plácido, agrees that the provincial capital of Cabo Delgado is not going to be taken over by insurgents, citing political interests that may hinder this.

“There is really no danger of an assault on Pemba. Even the areas close to the city of Pemba, like Metuge, the terrorists have not yet reached, even if they are in the surrounding area. The danger is close, but the city remains safe, and it is from there that actions are coordinated.”

Plácido believes that the Defence and Security Forces are capable of regaining control of the port of Mocímboa da Praia, as has happened in the past. “But it is not a total guarantee that the insurgents will not return,” he reflects.

“From the signs that have already been given in the past, it is clearly very difficult to expel terrorists for one simple reason: at the beginning of this year, several videos showing some of the population supporting terrorists were circulated. There is the basic work that must be done at the level of communities,” he explains.

The northern province of Cabo Delgado is home to one of the largest gas exploration projects in Africa. However, since October 2017 it has also been the target of attacks by insurgents, which have already caused hundreds of deaths and thousands of displaced people.

Insurgents will have received external support, says defence minister

“The enemy infiltrated several neighbourhoods, dressed in civilian clothes and benefiting from various complicities, attacking the village from the inside out, causing destruction, looting and assassination of defenceless citizens, with sabotage maneuvers and attacks on naval relief means from of the port of Mocímboa da Praia “, announced the Minister of Defense of Mozambique, Jaime Neto on Thursday (13.08) .

The Defence Minister added that the “alleged Islamic State” in Cabo Delgado denotes having received reinforcements from outside the country.

Several infrastructures have been vandalised in Mocímboa da Praia and, at this moment, the Defence and Security Forces are trying to regain control of the situation, despite the “supplementary reinforcement” that insurgents received in “equipment and men from bases outside the national territory,” according to Jaime. Neto.

The Defence Minister, who was speaking at a press conference in Maputo, admitted that the situation “remains tense and fluid, and the entire Mozambican state must engage in the normalisation of the lives of populations so hard hit by the terror”.

“We appeal, once again, for calm, for citizen vigilance and for the non-dissemination of rumours or shocking images of the fighting, for, even if for no other reason than that of a simple act of decency and respectful remembrance of our young people who have fallen to the service of duty, of the motherland and of the people”, stressed the Minister of Defence of Mozambique.

Source: Deutsche Welle