Mozambique attacks: Insurgency in Cabo Delgado delays rise in ratings – analyst

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Mozambique attacks: Insurgency in Cabo Delgado delays rise in ratings – analyst

4:29 CAT | 18 Mar 2019

File photo: Lusa

The insurgent attacks in Cabo Delgado are overshadowing the positive effect of the political efforts being made in Mozambique and hampering a favourable evolution of the outlook for the country, according to a risk analyst.

Reports of attacks by armed groups in the province of Cabo Delgado “do not significantly alter the relative outlook of Mozambique, which was already high risk”, but they jeopardise the positive evolution trajectory that has been taking place, said João Mendonça, director of Aon Portugal, a multinational specialised in risk analysis and management.

“It is difficult to exacerbate the levels of risk because they are already very high,” but these incidents “are delaying a more favourable outlook in the country”, he says.

The head of Aon stressed that “there are good prospects of progress” regarding the risk profile of the country, taking into account the political understandings, but for the outlook to change it is necessary to have “consistency in time” and stability at the level of indicators.

In the various risk indicators that Aon measures on a scale from 1 (low) to 6 (very high), risks remain high, and some have worsened since 2017 with respect to political interference in the economy, disruptions in the distribution chain, legal and regulatory risks and violence.

“In the case of Mozambique, we are always very cautious. The risk levels of the indicators are usually high or very high and have not undergone any significant changes in the quarterly analyses,” Mendonça says.

Companies incorporate these warning signs into their investment decisions.

“Most companies and economic agents already incorporate a worsening of risks, logistics costs, costs of financing and even of remunerations” when they decide to invest in Mozambique, according to the Aon expert.

“These situations increase the feeling of insecurity a bit,” but they are not a total surprise for companies.

In February, for the first time, insurgents attacked transport belonging to of American oil company Anadarko in two separate raids that resulted in one dead and six injured.

Mendonça pointed out that, although there is no consensus on the motivations of the attackers – some say that they are extremists linked to radical Islamist groups, but there are also those who suspect economic interests – there is “political alignment” to find solutions that help solve the problem.

“Politically, there is a willingness to solve [the problem], there is alignment between the government and opposition parties and this certainly helps,” the analyst comments

Since October 2017, attacks by unidentified armed groups have already claimed more than 160 lives and an unspecified number of wounded, including villagers, attackers and security forces. Hundreds of traditional houses and other community infrastructures have been burned and looted and many people fled fearing new aggression.

In early March, the Judicial Court of Cabo Delgado began trying a group of people suspected involvement in the armed attacks in that region. The case involves 34 defendants (23 Mozambicans and 11 Tanzanians) and is the second to reach the bar in Pemba, the provincial capital of Cabo Delgado.

The first trial began in October last year with 189 defendants facing charges of qualified homicide, possession of prohibited weapons, association to commit a crime against state organisation, instigation or provocation to collective disobedience, and disruption of public order and tranquillity.

Two journalists, Amade Abubacar and Germano Daniel Adriano, have also been detained. There release has been demanded by national and international human rights organisations

NGOs have expressed concern about human rights violations by Mozambique’s Defence and Security Forces when responding to the attacks, concerns confirmed in the United States Department of State’s annual report on global human rights, which cites “arbitrary arrests of civilians and closure of mosques”.

Source: Lusa