Mozambique: Samito has no chance of winning the presidential elections, says Elísio Macamo

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Mozambique: Samito has no chance of winning the presidential elections, says Elísio Macamo

1:58 CAT | 24 Sep 2018

File photo / DW: A man votes in the 2013 local elections

Samora Machel Junior’s candidacy for the 2019 presidential elections would represent an affront to Frelimo, sociologist Elísio Macamo says. For political scientist Pedro Nhacete, it would represent a threat to the cohesion of the party.

According to DW, after the Constitutional Council rejected his plan to run in the October municipal elections in Maputo, Samora Machel Júnior “made clear his intention to run for the 2019 presidential elections”.

The fact that the son of the first independent president of Mozambique, Samora Machel, would dare to run for office outside his own Frelimo party has already been interpreted as a sign of revolt. How would the leaders of the ruling party cope with any such independent presidential candidacy?

Mozambican sociologist Elísio Macamo believes that “at the moment, [considering] the way Frelimo is reacting to this situation, it would be seen as an affront.”

And neither does he believe Machel Júnior has any chance of victory.

“But I think his candidacy has no chance. In Maputo he would have had great chances, I’m sure, but at the country level I think he has few chances unless he starts his own party and starts working now. In ten or 15 years he might be able to stand up to Frelimo.”

For some years now, Frelimo has shown signs of fragmentation, although it is always able to muster enough maturity to take a unified position at decisive moments.

Threat to cohesion

Would Samito’s presidential candidacy be a more serious threat to the cohesion of the country’s largest party? Political scientist Pedro Nhacete is certain that it would.

“I think so, because being a member of the party and appearing [as a presidential candidate] would be creating another centre of power. So I think it really threatens cohesion.”

Will the controversial application process of Samora Machel Junior in the local elections have served as a test for his candidacy – to measure the temperature of the electorate, for example?

Macamo thinks not. “The impression I have is that he is drawing conclusions from the unpleasant experience he has had with local party structures and he must be thinking, as anyone with political ambition in Mozambique thinks, that the only way to influence politics in Mozambique is at a much higher level than the one he is at the moment. ”

Support from part of Frelimo, and to what extent?

Ausstellung Fotos von Samora Machel — Samora Machel, the late father of ‘Samito’

Samito’s daring to oppose Frelimo’s whip earned him much sympathy, including among the opposition. And he answers the profile of a young candidate much desired by the ‘Maputenses’.

He also bears a strong name in Mozambican politics and his stepmother, herself a Frelimo stalwart, has expressed herself unconditionally supportive. Graça Machel is considered part of a Frelimo wings that opposes the wing that now leads the party.

As for the possible support of this wing for Samito, political scientist Pedro Nhacete is definitive.

“This is very clear .This wing is strong, it lived with his father, the late President Samora, who also felt a certain exclusion inside the party. This could trigger some malaise within the party, but it’s a reality that no-one can ignore.”

Madame GraÃ§a Machel — Graça Machel, stepmother of Samora Machel Jr

His stepmother’s position is meaningless – Macamo

But sociologist Elísio Macamo believes that “his stepmother’s position is meaningless. If an individual takes two years to prepare and she does not know, for two years, then I do not know what kind of relationship these people have and I do not know what kind of value this statement has, when someone says look, even though you have not said anything for two years, you are my son and I will support you”.

“I think the position of this lady in relation to the plans of Samora Machel Junior is completely irrelevant. We have to look only at what he says and does and leave aside people who act out of opportunism, as seems to be the case here.”

Macamo concludes by mentioning one thing in favour of the aspiring candidate.

“What I think is important is that he is aware of the weight his name carries and had the courage to use that name to articulate discontent within Frelimo in relation to certain ways of managing the party.”