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The number of Islamist militant attacks in sub-Saharan Africa has risen sharply, with incidents climbing from 317 in 2013 to 1,549 for the period April 2017 to April 2018, global risk consultancy Control Risks said on Wednesday.
While some of the attacks were inspired by Islamic State whose heartland is in the Middle East, the drivers behind the rise in sub-Saharan Africa were complex.
“Many factors lie behind this, including the local dynamics of long-standing conflicts and insurgencies,” said Jean Devlin, partner and head of African analysis at Control Risks.
In East and West Africa, although security forces in affected countries had for the most part been able to reduce the capability of militant groups to hold onto and control territory, this has pushed them to engage in asymmetric warfare against civilian ‘soft targets’, Devlin said.
“Security forces are struggling to comprehensively degrade the capability of these groups, and as a result the threat is proving resilient despite gains made,” added Devlin.
Control Risks said Somalia, which witnessed 879 incidents over the period, accounted for over half of the Islamist militant incidents recorded across sub-Saharan Africa, while the only other East African country affected during the period was Kenya, with 79 incidents.
In West Africa, where 36 percent of the incidents were reported, Nigeria suffered 220 incidents, while Mali had 194 and Cameroon recorded 96.
Although the number of attacks in southern Africa was relatively low, with 43 in the Democratic Republic of Congo, 12 in Mozambique and one in South Africa – the rise in attacks particularly in Mozambique, where the first attack was recorded on 5 October 2017, was concerning.
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