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Image: AccuWeather
Eloise, currently a tropical depression across northern Madagascar, can strengthen rapidly late this week before making a second landfall in Mozambique.
Eloise first developed over the weekend across the open waters of the southern Indian Ocean. The depression intensified into a moderate tropical storm before moving inland across northern Madagascar late on Tuesday, according to Meteo France’s Le Reunion office. A moderate tropical storm has the intensity equivalent to a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Eloise is likely to bring heavy rain across northern Madagascar through Thursday as it moves into the Mozambique Channel where it is expected to intensify.
#Eloise has moved over waters off the NW #Madagascar and has strengthened to moderate TS. Eloise is expected to strike #Mozambique as a tropical cyclone or intense tropical cyclone on Saturday. pic.twitter.com/UnPfP9rVwB
— Jason Nicholls (@jnmet) January 20, 2021
Eloise may strengthen into a dangerous storm before second landfall https://t.co/SjSKrdjEJq
— Jason Nicholls (@jnmet) January 20, 2021
“Rainfall of 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) is expected to be widespread across northern Madagascar and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 300 mm (12 inches) is possible,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.
“Eloise is then expected to make another landfall in southern Mozambique late on Saturday or Saturday night,” Nicholls added.
Prior to its second landfall in southern Mozambique, Eloise may rapidly strengthen into a dangerous intense tropical cyclone across the Mozambique Channel.
The combination of very warm water and light wind shear will create an environment that can allow for rapid tropical cyclone development.
“It is possible that Eloise strengthens into the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane before moving inland,” said Nicholls.
This could lead to significant impacts around the landfall location as damaging winds, flooding rainfall and coastal storm surge inundation would all be possible.
Should Eloise strengthen as rapidly as expected and into an intense tropical cyclone, significant wind damage would be possible along the coast near the point of landfall. The most likely area to endure these damaging winds is in southern Mozambique between Beira and Inhambane.
Winds could be strong enough to lead to widespread power outages lasting for days. Weaker structures could also sustain significant damage.
While the current forecast calls for the worst of the conditions to remain south of Beira, which was hit by Tropical Cyclone Chalane late in December, residents should continue to monitor the track of the storm and be prepared to make the appropriate precaution.
Also near and just to the south of the landfall location, strong onshore winds can cause water to pile onto the coast leading to significant flooding of low-lying coastal areas. This is knows as a storm surge. The storm surge has the potential to inundate some areas with 1-2 meters (3.3-6.6 feet) of water.
Because of the threat for storm surge flooding, residents living in low-lying coastal communities near the point of landfall are urged to seek shelters on higher ground.
Widespread and heavy rainfall will also be a significant threat from Eloise and can reach much farther inland than the threat for damaging winds and storm surge will.
Much of southern Mozambique, Eswatini (Swaziland) and extreme northeastern South Africa can all be threatened by flooding from Friday night into Monday.
Widespread areas of 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) of rain are expected, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 500 mm (20 inches). The heaviest rain looks most likely to fall near the point of landfall along the southern Mozambique coast as well as in far southern Mozambique, near Maputo, and into extreme northeastern South Africa, generally to the north of Richards Bay.
Heavy rainfall from Eloise is expected to dissipate early next week as the storm continues to become less organized, but locally heavy downpours could last into the middle of the week due to the remaining tropical moisture across the region.
Tropical Storm #Eloise, which has strengthened since yesterday, made landfall few hours ago near Antalaha Town, north-east of Madagascar. Heavy rains are expected. The storm could evolve into a tropical cyclone as it moves towards southern Mozambique.
More https://t.co/MOugyRnGi1 pic.twitter.com/wURLV8Aqqv— OCHA Southern & Eastern Africa (@UNOCHA_ROSEA) January 19, 2021
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