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The Fitch Solutions consultancy said today that the election of Ossufo Momade as Renamo leader would keep “the political and military wings of the party united,” but warned of the possibility of pre-election instability.
“We hope that the election of Ossufo Momade as leader of the Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo) in Mozambique will keep the political and military wings together in the run-up to the October elections,” the analysts of Fitch rating agency consultancy group write.
“We believe that Momade’s track record in Renamo, both in the political wing and in the military wing, gives him the credibility he needs to ensure unity and continuity within the party,” analysts add in a client note Lusa has seen.
However, they point out: “The lack of progress in the peace negotiations following the 2018 municipal elections dispute increases the risks of instability on the eve of and after the October general elections.”
Fitch Solutions expects Frelimo to continue governing the country with a parliamentary majority “because of the advantages of being in power for a long time”, but says that “there is a precedent of Renamo questioning election results and resorting to violence, so the risk of instability has increased”.
Even though Momade advocates a continuation of peace, Fitch Solutions says it could not “rule out the possibility of members of the military wing of the party rebelling and resuming attacks” which could “redirect resources currently allocated to Cabo Delgado near the border with Tanzania”.
If this happens, the attacks, until have been confined to an isolated area, could “spread to areas where international companies are investing in the hydrocarbon sector”, the note concludes.
Renamo’s interim leader won the party’s presidential election two weeks ago with 410 votes against Elias Dhlakama’s 238, Manuel Bissopo’s seven and Juliano Picardo’s five.
Momade, who had been Renamo interim coordinator since the death of Afonso Dhlakama in May 2018, obtained an absolute majority of votes from the almost 700 activists present at the congress.Source: Lusa