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Mozambique will not be able to end extreme poverty by 2030, a goal established by the United Nations, but could reduce it to 21.8% of the population in the best scenarios outlined by the World Bank.
“Is Mozambique on a path to end extreme poverty by 2030? It is unlikely, but poverty will fall significantly if growth is high, stable and more broadly shared,” reads the ‘Mozambique Poverty Assessment – Strong But Not Broadly Shared Growth’ being presented today in Maputo.
The World Bank’s optimistic projections, in case there is high economic growth that benefits the poorest, predict that 21.8% will remain in poverty, “a remarkable achievement” it says, compared to the most recent 2015 figure of 48.4%.
“However, if growth remains strong but pro-rich, as in recent years, the projections indicate that poverty will fall at most to around 32% by 2030”, or 36% if the economy grows more modestly.
“If consumption growth is equally distributed across the population but below past performance, reflecting the slower economic growth experienced in recent years, around 36% of the Mozambicans will still be poor by 2030,” the World bank report reads.
According to the study, despite a percentage reduction in poverty in Mozambique, the absolute number of poor people has increase from 11 million in 2003 to 12.3 million in 2015 because of rapid population growth.
“Had growth been more equally shared Mozambique would have achieved twice as much poverty reduction after 2000,” the report reads. “The ‘growth effect’ alone would have reduced poverty by 23.1 percentage points between 2002 and 2014 – bringing the poverty headcount down to 37.2% rather than 48.4% – had that growth been more inclusive. Instead, inequality in the distribution of consumption growth increased poverty by 11.2 percentage points”.
“Nearly one in two Mozambicans are trapped in chronic poverty and close to 25 percent of the population is highly vulnerable to falling into poverty,” the World Bank analysts point out..
The World Bank recommends policies that lead to “robust and inclusive growth” to maximise poverty reduction.
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