Mozambique: Debt service to climb 18% in 2024 to €1.7B
Image: O País
The Bank of Mozambique foresees continued pressure from rising prices in the short term, and the institution’s Monetary Policy Committee (CPMO), meeting this Thursday (19-05), decided to leave the monetary policy (MIMO) interest rate unchanged at 15.25%.
The central bank’s decision took into account the prospects of worsening inflation in the medium term, despite the high risks and uncertainties associated with these projections, with emphasis on the effects of geopolitical tension on Europe. “Meanwhile, in the short term, inflation will remain high, reflecting the impact of the adjustment in the prices of administered goods,” the institution warns in a statement.
In its press release, the Bank of Mozambique recalls that, in April, annual inflation accelerated to 7.9%, against 6.7% in March, reflecting the increase in fuel and food prices. However, it found that underlying inflation, which excludes the prices of managed goods and services and fruits and vegetables, and which is impacted by monetary policy, remains stable. In the medium term, the institution expects inflation to remain in single digits, helped, in part, by the stability of the metical.
“The risks and uncertainties associated with inflation projections remain high. At the domestic level, uncertainties regarding the magnitude of the increase in the prices of managed goods stand out, especially fuel and its effects on the prices of other goods and services. Externally, the constraints in the supply chains of goods and the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine remain, with an impact on the increase in the price of oil and foodstuffs on the international market,” the document details.
After the last CPMO meeting, the Bank of Mozambique reported that economic growth prospects for 2022 and 2023 would be maintained, after 4.1% growth in the first quarter of 2022, reflecting the continued easing of Covid-19 containment measures, which mainly boosted the hotels and restaurants sector, and the improvement in external demand which, in turn, favoured the performance of the extractive industry.
In the short and medium term, the Bank of Mozambique says that the prospects for economic recovery are maintained, supported, additionally, by the execution of energy projects in Inhambane and in the Rovuma basin, in a context of resumption of the International Monetary Fund program.
The central bank also mentions that the pressure on domestic public indebtedness continues. Specifically, it pointed out that the internal public debt, excluding loan and lease contracts and liabilities in arrears, stands at 245.6 billion meticais, an increase of 26.7 billion meticais in comparison to December, 2021.
Finally, the communiqué, signed by the Governor of the Bank of Mozambique, Rogério Zandamela, states that recent macroeconomic prospects are consistent with maintaining the current level of the MIMO rate in the short term, in order to guarantee low and stable inflation, the main objective of the Bank of Mozambique.
“The CPMO will continue to monitor the evolution of risks and uncertainties associated with inflation projections and will not hesitate to take any necessary corrective measures,” the institution promises.
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