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French analyst and historian Michel Cahen is of the opinion that the attack on Palma, where Total oil operates, strikes at France’s interests in the region, but that a foreign military intervention would not solve the problem.
“France’s interest is Total”, the director emeritus of the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) says. “France also has geopolitical interests in the area and is concerned with maritime security,” he adds, but, “in my view, foreign military intervention in the area will not solve the problem.”
According to Cahen, the presence of Total, which last week announced the resumption of gas prospecting activity at the Afungi base, about eight kilometres from Palma, was an investment that gave France greater diplomatic weight in the country, but it should not lead to foreign military intervention.
“France has been intervening for more than five years in Mali and after all the efforts, and the deaths of dozens of French soldiers, the situation has not improved. It would not be good to produce a second Mali in Mozambique,” he said.
The timing of the attack by the jihadist group was also, according to the French historian specialising in Lusophone Africa, an indicator that the movement, which has the formal support of the self-proclaimed Islamic State, is attentive to the political and economic situation in the region.
The group, “although said to be weakened, demonstrated that it was capable of military operations of great importance and political sensitivity. Obviously, attacking Palma after Total decided to resume activities shows that they have a good political analysis of what is happening in the region,” he indicated.
For Cahen, the group, which presents itself as ‘Al-Shabaab’, is motivated by more than religious issues, but also issues of social and ethnic inequality.
“During the first civil war in Mozambique, between 1977 and 1992, Cabo Delgado was a Renamo stronghold, and it looks like it’s the same point with the current jihadist group, namely that there are sectors of the population that still feel marginalized by the modern state,” the historian noted.
The support of part of the population and the affiliation of young Mozambicans to the terrorist group does not surprise him, given that many people in the region “have no hope of their lives improving in the current situation”. The war itself therefore “becomes a social project”.
One way of escaping the logic of terror that is currently sweeping Cabo Delgado is “preventive work” with young people in the region, and an amnesty for all young people who surrender to the Mozambican armed forces.
“And, also, to try to negotiate. They say you don’t negotiate with terrorists, but if it is to bring peace, you should,” Cahen concluded.
According to the IOM, more than 670,000 people have been forced to flee violence since the beginning of the conflict in Cabo Delgado in October 2017, and more than half of these are children. The number of those displaced could now exceed 700,000.
According to the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, the Mozambican population urgently needs around US$254 million (about €217 million) “to face the triple crisis resulting from violence, climate crises and the Covid-19 pandemic”.
On Monday, the Islamic State terrorist movement claimed control of the village of Palma, near the border with Tanzania.
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