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File photo: Lusa
A poll by the National University in East Timor gives victory in this month’s Timorese presidential elections to former President Jose Ramos-Horta, even if a second round is necessary.
The poll heard around 4,100 people in all municipalities in February and gave José Ramos-Horta, supported by Xanana Gusmão’s National Congress of Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT), 39.05% of the votes.
In second comes the former Commander of the Defence Forces, Lere Anan Timur, with 22.01%. In third, the current president, Francisco Guterres Lú-Olo, supported by his party, the Revolutionary Front of Independent Timor-Leste (Fretilin).
The fourth most voted candidate, according to the poll, was Mariano Assanami Sabino, current deputy of the Democratic Party (PD), with 9.75% of the votes, and in fifth Armanda Berta dos Santos, current deputy prime minister and president of Kmanek Haburas Unidade Nacional Timor Oan (KHUNTO).
Regarding the legislative elections scheduled for 2023, almost half of the respondents (48.79%) said that if the election were held today, they would vote for CNRT, followed by Fretilin (28.36%) PD with 12.77% and KHUNTO with 6.06%.
The fifth most voted party would be the People’s Liberation Party (PLP) of current Prime Minister Taur Matan Ruak with 1.56%.
Among the voters who identified themselves as Fretilin voters, and concerning possible direct elections for the party leadership, almost 50% considered it was time “to change the party leadership,” and only 13.83% believed that the current leadership should be maintained.
Estáquio Amaral, statistics teacher and responsible for the survey, told Lusa that “the survey was an initiative of the Physics Department as a Statistics curricular unit, and the students of the subject collected the data.
Conducted between 10 and 26 February in all municipalities, the survey has a margin of error of 5% and a confidence interval of 95%.
The participants were randomly selected, with proportional participation to the populations of each municipality, and with direct interviews through a questionnaire whose answers were recorded on a digital form by the enumerator.
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