Sudan and Eritrea’s Apostolic Nuncio appointed to Mozambique
Image: Nuno Texeira / A Verdade
Two new cases of Covid-19 were diagnosed on Wednesday (22). They are South African citizens and bring to 28 the number of Total workers infected with the new coronavirus in Mozambique.
The deputy director-general of the National Institute of Health (INS) explained to @Verdade that the optimistic scenario of three million infections in Mozambique during the two-and-a-half years that the pandemic may last before it’s blocked, “is assuming that measures (such as the State of Emergency) are implemented and without a forecast on when the vaccine will be available”.
“Until today, April 22, 2020, in Mozambique, 1,247 suspected cases have been tested, 84 of which in the last 24 hours. Of the new cases tested, 82 were negative and two positive for the coronavirus, our country therefore currently has 41 positive cases, of which 33 are local and eight imported,” the National Director of Public Health announced after two consecutive days of negative results.
“One of the new positive cases is a male person, of South African nationality, with more than 50 years of age who maintained contact with a positive individual in Afungi, in the Province of Cabo Delgado. The other positive case is that of an individual of South African nationality, over 30 years of age who maintained contact with a positive individual in Afungi, Cabo Delgado province,” Dr Rosa Marlene explained, indicating that the two new patients were asymptomatic and therefore remained in isolation at the Total oil camp on the Afungi peninsula in Cabo Delgado province.
There are now 28 workers infected at the French oil company leading the Mozambique LNG project in Area 1 of the Rovuma Basin, with the INS Deputy Director-General saying that new cases could be diagnosed in the coming days
“Samples coming from Cabo Delgado will be continuous, and we will be receiving them daily depending on the availability of flights,” Dr Marlene explained.
@Verdade has also learned that Alberto Raul, the Mozambican who died of Covid -19 in the German city of Berlin, was one of the “madjermanes” and that, before contracting the new coronavirus, he had suffered from diabetes.
Three million infected “assuming the measures are implemented but not including when the vaccine will be available”
Regarding the ‘optimistic [pandemic] scenario’ made public this Tuesday (21st) by Minister of Health Armindo Tiago, deputy director general of the National Health Institute Dr Eduardo Samo Gudo Júnior said: “This optimistic scenario is where interventions are implemented to their maximum extent and effectiveness. The pessimistic scenario is when no measures are implemented, no measures are implemented and the epidemic is allowed to follow its natural course over time, which obviously does not apply to Mozambique, but this is how it is done in Public Health: you plan for the worst and work to prevent it , while hoping for the best.”
“We have to understand that, like any other epidemic, it will only be eradicated with an effective vaccine. Countries are suppressing transmission because there is no vaccine. By suppressing transmission, we will have a slow progress, as we are seeing in many countries (Denmark, New Zealand, Vietnam), which allows us to gain time, so that a vaccine appears before the country has a high number of cases,” Dr Gudo said.
He underlined however that the optimistic scenario of a cumulative of three million infected by Covid-19 in Mozambique would only come about “assuming that the measures are implemented, but without a vaccine being available”.
Pandemic could last two-and-a-half years and peak between January and February 2021
“If the vaccine is available when Mozambique has, for example, 10,000 positive cases, we will not reach the scenario (of the three million infected), so the scientific strategy is to suppress, so that the vaccine appears before the country registers these three million cases in a time horizon of two-and-a-half years. This is a long -term scenario, as the vaccine will certainly be available much earlier,” Dr Samo Gudo said.
The Mozambican epidemiologist clarified that the pandemic “could peak between January and February 2021, when infections could reach 65 percent of the population, and transmission will be naturally blocked”.
Without revealing whether the measures that doctors recommend to prevent an explosion of Covid-19 infections include the extension of the State of Emergency for a few more months, Dr Gudo said: “If all Mozambicans comply with the measures, we will obviously move to the better scenario, as we have seen in many countries. Mozambique has anticipated the measures, and several Stage 1 and 2 measures were taken before the first case (positive). Many countries waited for cases before taking action. It is a consolidated fact that, by anticipating the measures, as Mozambique did, and if all Mozambicans comply with these measures, we will obviously see a better scenario.”
By Adérito Caldeira
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