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Most countries in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) are likely to receive normal to below normal rainfall for the 2018/2019 rainfall season amid fears the region will most likely experience the El Nino phenomenon again this year.
El Nino, a temporary weather phenomenon, causes shifting weather patterns across the globe and largely droughts in Southern Africa.
In the region, erratic rains have led to bad harvests and mass deaths of livestock. According to the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF), there will be increased chances of normal to below normal rainfall throughout the season.
“The bulk of Southern African Development Community (SADC) is likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall for most of the period October to December (OND) 2018 and above normal rainfall over the northern half of the United Republic of Tanzania.
“The January to March (JFM) 2019 period will be normal-to-below normal rainfall for most of the region. However, northern most Angola, central most Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), south-western Tanzania, northern Malawi, and the islands states of Comoros and Mauritius, eastern-most Madagascar are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall throughout the 2018/19 rainy season,” SARCOF said in a statement released in Harare this week.
“The forecast for the October, November and December 2018 season for northern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will see increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall. In northern Tanzania, there will be increased chances of above-normal rainfall and in the northern Mozambique, southern Tanzania, northern Malawi, northernmost Zambia, the bulk of DRC and north-western half of Angola is likely to have increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall.
“For central Mozambique, southern Malawi, northern half of Zimbabwe, most of Zambia, southernmost DRC, south-eastern half of Angola, bulk of Namibia, western half of Botswana, most of central and western parts of South Africa and western parts of Lesotho will also have increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall.
In extreme south-western Zambia, north-eastern Namibia, south-easternmost Angola, south-western half of Zimbabwe, eastern half of Botswana, most of northern South Africa, eastern Lesotho, Swaziland and southern Mozambique, SARCOF states that there will be increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall.
South-westernmost Angola and western coastal areas of Namibia and South Africa, western Madagascar, eastern Madagascar, southern Madagascar, Mauritius, Seychelles and Comoros will also have increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall.
SARCOF further indicated that for November and December 2018 and January 2019, and the January to March 2019 period, there will be increased chances of normal to above normal rainfall in most countries in SADC.
Climate scientists took into account oceanic and atmospheric factors that influence the region’s climate over the SADC region, in particular, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which is currently in its neutral phase.
The ENSO is projected to continue in the warm (El Nino) phase during the entire forecast period. SARCOF noted noted that temperatures in the region for the October, November and December 2018 and the January, February and March 2019 period will be normal to above-normal. The statement indicates that the outlook is relevant only to seasonal timescales and relatively large areas and may not fully account for all local and intra-seasonal factors that influence climate variability, which can be interpreted and updated by national meteorological and hydrological services.
According to Elisha Moyo, the principal climate researcher at Zimbabwe’s Ministry of Environment, Water and Climate, the El Nino phenomenon increases the chances of below normal rainfall.
“For Southern Africa and Zimbabwe, the phenomenon increases the chances of below-normal rainfall, prolonged intra-seasonal dry spells and temperature rises possibly early rainfall cessation and increased tropical cyclone activity,” he said.
Moyo said people must not panic as there were also chances for a good season even during El Nino.
“It’s also possible to have a good season during an El Nino year depending with the strength of the El Nino and depending with other rainfall drivers. Surface temperatures could, however, be unusually high during the El Nino periods due to subdued cloud formation. This could aggravate the effect on crop conditions,” he said.
Grace Mutandiro, the permanent secretary at the ministry, said in the likely case of a drought induced by less rains, the Government has strategies in place for emergency.
“We do not want people to panic. In light of less rains, we have strategies together with our various stakeholders such as water harvesting, rehabilitation of boreholes and drilling of boreholes. Priority is being put on what can be done to address the anticipated less water,” she said.
By Charity Ruzvidzo
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