Mozambique: Orange warnings due to rain and drought
eNCA
Since late last week the meteorological forecasting models were indicating that a tropical low would develop and deepen in the Mozambique Channel over the weekend and this week.
So far the system has behaved as expected and has slowly but steadily become more organised as it has intensified, while its general movement is still slow and it remains centred in the Channel.
Météo-France in La Réunion is the agency responsible for issuing forecasts and warnings in the south-west Indian Ocean, which includes the Mozambique Channel. Their latest bulletin refers to the low as a ‘tropical disturbance’ with sustained maximum winds reaching gale force near the centre of the low.
Although the low is currently quite weak, conditions are favourable for further intensification, and the latest prediction from La Réunion states that it will become a moderate tropical storm by Tuesday morning.
At this point, it will be designated the name ‘Dineo’ and is expected to move gradually closer to the coastline of southern Mozambique. It is forecast to reach severe tropical storm status by Wednesday, making landfall that evening between Inhambane and Vilanculos in Mozambique, when it will begin to lose steam as it moves overland.
For South Africa, there are indications that this system could affect the lowveld areas of Limpopo and/or Mpumalanga as early as Thursday. Heavy rainfall in the area is likely to be the most significant impact although strong winds in the lowveld on Thursday and Friday cannot be ruled out.
The eNCA Weather Centre notes that although the official forecast is issued by Météo-France, there are some meteorological forecast models that are not entirely in agreement with the timing and landfall position of the system.
Additionally, tropical storms and cyclones are notoriously fickle and their movements and intensities are known to change unexpectedly and for these reasons, future forecasts and updates should be closely followed.
Leave a Reply
Be the First to Comment!
You must be logged in to post a comment.
You must be logged in to post a comment.